(TORONTO, 30 AUGUST 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP has a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives.
Pallas surveyed 821 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 29, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 44% (+7% since Pallas’ last poll in May). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 43% (+5%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 11% (+2%).
“The first look at the British Columbia political landscape since Kevin Falcon’s decision to join forces with the BC Conservatives did not have the intended effect of giving the Conservatives a bigger lead over the NDP, at least not immediately,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
This is the first public poll of British Columbia provincial voting intentions since BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced that he would suspend the United campaign and encouraged United supporters to join forces with the BC Conservatives.
“These results mean either one of two things,” continued Angolano. “The first is that voters are still considering their options in the context of this news about BC United’s halting of its campaign.”
“The other is that the bulk of right-of-centre United supporters had already left for the Conservatives before Falcon’s announcement, and those remaining supporters were sticking around under the United brand because they did not feel ideologically aligned with the Conservatives.”
The net gains for the other parties in this survey (14%) are almost identical to BC United’s support (13%) in the last Pallas poll in May.
“This suggests that BC United was more a coalition of centrist voters, and some of those voters will go to the NDP and Greens now that United have left the ballot,” continued Angolano.
Strong Disapproval of Falcon’s Decision To End BC United Campaign
Most British Columbians disapprove of Kevin Falcon’s decision to suspend BC United’s campaign to support the BC Conservatives. 41% said they disapproved of the decision, compared to 32% who said they supported the move. 23% said that they neither approved nor disapproved of the decision.
“This question is divided mostly along partisan lines,” said Angolano. “While Green and NDP supporters are against Falcon’s decision, Conservative voters are strongly in favour of it.”
British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction
Despite the NDP leading, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction.
“The demographic groups that think the province is on the right track are those most likely to support the NDP: women, voters over 65, and Vancouver Island residents,” said Angolano. “The only group where the NDP lead and who said the province is headed in the wrong direction are Greater Vancouver residents.”
Voters Ambivalent About Party Leaders, But Eby Performs The Best
The survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. No party leader received a positive net score (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one).
Green Party leader Sonia Fursteneau and NDP leader David Eby have identical net scores (-6%). However, 32% of respondents said they had a positive impression of Eby, compared to 20% who had a positive impression of Fursteneau. John Rustad has a net score of -17%.
“Eby is the best performer among the three party leaders, but that shouldn’t be taken as voters giving him ringing endorsement over his two opponents,” said Angolano.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on August 29, 2024 among a sample of 821 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
