(TORONTO, 11 June 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1136 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 4th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 39.4% (+4.9% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in February). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 26.5% (-5.1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22.6% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 8.3% (+1%).
“It has been a good 2024 for Premier Ford so far”, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs have a comfortable lead over the Liberals and would comfortably win a majority of an election were held today.”
The Ford PCs have significant leads in every region, including the seat-rich areas of the Greater Toronto Area and Toronto proper. The Liberals, on the other hand, have an eight-point lead over the PCs and the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor).
“These numbers indicate that little has changed since the last election,” said Dr. Angolano. “The PCs are within the margin of error of what they got in 2022, and the Liberals and the NDP are relatively close to each other.”
An Early Election
The survey also asked Ontarians whether they would be more or less likely to vote PC if an early election were called. Premier Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election call over the last week when reporters have asked.
31% said they would be less likely to vote PC if an election were called early. 10% said they would be more likely to vote PC, while 52% said an early election call would not impact their vote.
“An early election would not impact the PC’s electoral chances,” added Dr. Angolano. “What it would mean is that those voters that have already decided that they would never vote for the PCs would use an early election call as another reason not to vote for them.”
One in four PC voters said they would be more likely to vote PC if there were an early election, with only 14% saying they would be less likely to vote PC if Ontarians headed to the polls early.
“The Liberals, who are in second place, would need every one of those 14% to switch their votes from the PCs to them to get to a PC minority,” said Angolano. “And that scenario of perfect voter conversion is simply not going to happen.”
The PCs Will Win Because They Can Retain Their Base
The survey also asked Ontarians to identify whether strategic or sincere reasons best explain their vote.
- 22% said they would vote PC because they are their number one choice (hard PC voters);
- 14% said that they have concerns with the PCs, but are voting for them anyway because they don’t like the other parties (soft PC voters);
- 21% said that they would vote strategically for any other party just to stop the PCs from winning again (strategic opposition voters),
- 31% said they would vote for the other parties because they are their number one choice (hard opposition voters).
“The PCs have enough voters among both hard and soft PC voters to win an election despite the voter pool is larger for the opposition parties than it is for the PCs,” said Angolano.
“The bad news for the NDP and the Liberals is that the soft PC voters are fine with an early election call and the general performance of the Ford government,” Angolano continued.
When asked about whether they thought the Ford government was doing a good or bad job so far in 2024, 41% of Ontarians said that they were doing a very bad job, 15% said they were doing a somewhat bad job, 12% said they were doing neither a good or bad job, 16% said they were doing a somewhat good job, while 13% said they were doing a very good job.
“It seems confusing that Ontarians are giving a big ‘thumbs down’ to Ford but likely winning re-election easily,” said Angolano. “But the plain truth is that PCs are satisfied with how the PCs are doing in 2024.”
“The PCs understand that they can’t and won’t be all things to all people,” concluded Angolano. “But they can focus on keeping their voters happy and onside, which is why they’re on a path to an easy re-election.”
