(TORONTO, 29 April 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois are still in the lead in voting intentions in Quebec, while the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec has slid to third.
Pallas surveyed 1256 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from April 20-21 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 33% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in January), while the opposition Liberals led by interim leader Marc Tanguay climbed to 23% (+8%). The CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-1%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 13% (-4%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime, has 11% (-1%).
“Paul St Pierre Plamondon’s speech a week ago guaranteeing a referendum by 2030 if the PQ were elected certainly has woken up Quebec’s non-francophone vote,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “That demographic has come flying back to the Quebec Liberals, who have traditionally been the defender of minority rights and hard federalism in Quebec.”
“Future polling will determine whether this Liberal rise is ephemeral or permanent,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But if all it takes for the Liberals to climb back up in the polls is a hard sovereignty speech by Plamondon, and given that the Liberals do not have a permanent leader, I would hazard to guess that this Liberal bump will be gone sooner rather than later.”
The Liberals’ rise is due entirely to their increased support among Quebec non-francophones. In this survey, 67% of non-francophones said they would vote for the Liberals, an increase from 48% in January.
This increased support translates into better showings for the Liberals regionally, most notably in Montreal. The Liberals are tied two points ahead of the Parti Quebecois in the Montreal area, five points ahead of the PQ in the suburbs, and fifteen points ahead of the Pequistes on the Island.
In the Quebec City area and the regions, the PQ has strong leads over the Quebec Conservatives and the CAQ respectively.
“While the Liberals are up, the Parti Quebecois would still win a majority if an election were held today,” said Angolano.
Pushing the Sovereignty Button Hard Would Hurt the PQ
The survey also found that 39% would vote for Quebec sovereignty today, compared to 50% who said they would vote against it.
Although support for sovereignty is robust, Quebec said they were less likely to vote for the PQ if they promised to hold a referendum after the election should they win. While 43% said pushing for a referendum would not affect their likelihood of voting for the PQ in the election, 38% said they were less likely to vote PQ if they promised to hold a referendum in the next election. 13% said that they were more likely to vote for the Parti Quebecois.
The survey also asked if they wanted to hold a referendum on sovereignty by 2030, as Plamondon promised. 54% said they did not want a referendum by then, with 37% saying they would want one.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted from April 20th to 21st, 2024, among a sample of 1256 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
