(TORONTO, 21 December 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a fourteen-point lead over the governing Liberals and would win 197 seats if an election were held today, the final Pallas Data poll of 2023 has found.
Pallas surveyed 1177 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through a probability-based online panel from 13-15 December 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 27%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 17%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 5%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 31% in Quebec.
“2023 will not be a year that the Prime Minister will look back on fondly – at least in terms of public opinion,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives would win almost 200 seats if an election were held today. What remains to be seen is whether Pierre Poilievre and his team can keep the discipline to take that lead into the next federal election.”
The Conservatives lead among men, women, and every age group. They also lead in every region by commanding margins, except for Quebec, where they trail the Bloc Quebecois by three points.
Pallas MRP Model Projects 197 Seats For The Conservatives
Also, Pallas Data modelled this survey data with MRP, a powerful statistical technique used for many years in the US and the UK to estimate subnational preferences from national survey data.
“Our MRP model projects that the Conservatives would win 197 seats, the Liberals would win 73, the Bloc would get 38 seats, the NDP would get 28, and the Greens would get two.
“MRP is a powerful tool for researchers,” said Dr. Angolano. “Now, we can tell you which party would win every one of Canada’s 338 electoral districts just by surveying around 1000 Canadians.”
Pallas Data decided to use the current riding boundaries for this MRP model, because those would be boundaries that would be used if an election were held today.
The next MRP federal model that Pallas Data will release will use the new boundaries as completed in October 2023.
“MRP can take any survey data about Canadians’ thoughts and opinions on anything and model down to very small geographic areas – from federal ridings to forward sortation areas,” continued Dr. Angolano.
“The applications for MRP are vast. MRP can help companies focus their digital advertising or learn who their target audience is in exact terms. It can also help political parties and government relations professionals know where they stand in every electoral district regarding their campaigns.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from December 13th to 15th, 2023 among a sample of 1177 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using an online panel that was assembled from probability-based sampling.
The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is
intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
