(TORONTO, 26 October 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a sixteen-point lead over the governing Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
Pallas surveyed 1484 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from 21-22 October 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 43% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 26%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 16%, while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 3%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 29% in Quebec.
“The governing Liberals are in serious trouble and would get routed if an election were held today,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives led by Pierre Poilevre lead in every region of the country and would cruise to a majority victory.”
The Conservatives find themselves in a three-way statistical tie in Quebec but lead by significant numbers in every other region of the country. In vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by nine points, while they are ahead of the Liberals by eight points in the former Liberal stronghold of Atlantic Canada.
“It is not enough for the Liberals to say ‘Don’t worry, the election isn’t until 2025’ and hope that Poilievre self-destructs between now and then,” continued Angolano. “The Conservative leader is showing far too much discipline at this point in time for that to happen.”
“The Liberals need to do something to turn the tide because this hole may be too big to dig themselves out of,” added Angolano.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from October 21st to 22nd, 2023 among a sample of 1484 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
