(TORONTO, October 23, 2026) \u2013 The BC Conservatives lead the NDP by six points on the eve of the provincial election, according to Pallas Data’s final poll of the campaign.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson have 45% (+2%). The BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 39% (+1%). The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 12% (+1%).
“Ten days ago I said five points was a lead the NDP could still close,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The gap is six now, and the BC Conservatives are on track to win tomorrow’s election.”
The NDP and the Conservatives were tied at 41% in our previous poll ten days ago. The Conservatives now lead there, 46% to 41%. In the BC Interior, little has changed: Conservatives 50%, NDP 36%.
The NDP has taken the lead on Vancouver Island, 42% to 32% for the Conservatives, after trailing 35% to 33% ten days ago. The Greens have 24% on the Island, double that of their provincial estimate.
Conservatives lead male voters by eight points over the NDP ( 47% to 35%). Among women, however, the vote split with the Conservatives at 44% and the NDP at 43%.
The NDP lead among voters aged 18-34 by four points over the Conservatives. The Conservatives also lead 43% to 38% among voters 35 to 49 and 49% to 39% among those 65 and older.
“The NDP picked up ground on the Island but lost it in Metro Vancouver,” said Angolano. “This might prove fatal for David Eby’s chances tomorrow.”
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Asked which leader would make the best premier, regardless of how they might vote, 32% of all voters picked Doerkson (-3%) and 27% picked Eby (-2%). Lowan is up to 16% (+3%).
Ten days ago, Doerkson and Eby each had 78% of their own party’s voters. Doerkson is down to 68% of Conservatives and Eby to 65% of New Democrats.
Lowan is picking up support from NDP voters. She has 18% among those who said they were voting NDP, up from 9% on October 13, and 22% of voters under 35.
Eby does best on Vancouver Island, with 36% to Lowan’s 24% and Doerkson’s 23%. He also leads Doerkson among voters 18 to 34, 30% to 25%.
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50% of British Columbians say the province is heading in the wrong direction, down from 53% on October 13. Thirty-one percent say it’s on the right track and 19% aren’t sure.
The Interior is now the most negative region, with 54% saying it’s in the wrong direction. Vancouver Island was at 58% last time and is down to 40%, with 27% unsure.
NDP voters still say the province is going in the right direction (59% to 14%). Conservative voters say it’s going in the wrong direction, 82% to 9%, and Green voters, 58% to 30%.
“Eby went into the final stretch needing to move either the best premier number or the right track number,” said Angolano. “Neither moved much, and twice as many of his own voters now prefer Lowan.”
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The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 22nd, 2026 among a sample of 702 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
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