{"id":1845,"date":"2025-12-18T19:34:42","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T19:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/?p=1845"},"modified":"2025-12-18T19:49:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T19:49:47","slug":"pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/12\/18\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\/","title":{"rendered":"Sondage de Pallas Data : Impasse politique alors que deux Canadas \u00e9mergent"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(TORONTO, 18 d\u00e9cembre 2025)<\/strong> \u2013 Le paysage politique canadien reste fig\u00e9 alors que deux visions fondamentalement incompatibles de l'avenir du pays se sont cristallis\u00e9es, le patriotisme \u00e9conomique s'affirmant comme la ligne de fracture d\u00e9terminante, selon un nouveau sondage de Pallas Data.<br><br>Dans le cadre de la deuxi\u00e8me vague de l&#x27;indice de patriotisme \u00e9conomique (EPI) du Canada, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 074 adultes \u00e0 travers le Canada du 13 au 15 d\u00e9cembre 2025 \u00e0 l&#x27;aide de PharoVoice, la plateforme d&#x27;enqu\u00eate vocale bas\u00e9e sur l&#x27;IA de Pallas Data, et d&#x27;un syst\u00e8me IVR. La marge d&#x27;erreur est de +\/- 3% avec un niveau de confiance de 95%.<br><br><strong>Les intentions de vote f\u00e9d\u00e9rales restent stables<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s et ind\u00e9cis, les Lib\u00e9raux, men\u00e9s par Mark Carney, recueillent 41% des intentions de vote, tandis que les Conservateurs, sous la houlette de Pierre Poilievre, suivent avec 38%. Le NPD recueille 8% et le Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 8%.<br><br>\u201c En ce qui concerne les intentions de vote f\u00e9d\u00e9rales, rien n'a chang\u00e9 depuis l'\u00e9lection \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201c Malgr\u00e9 la d\u00e9fection spectaculaire de Michael Ma au party de No\u00ebl lib\u00e9ral et les rumeurs selon lesquelles d'autres d\u00e9put\u00e9s conservateurs traverseraient la lantai, les donn\u00e9es fondamentales n'ont pas boug\u00e9 depuis ao\u00fbt. \u201d<br><br>Les lib\u00e9raux conservent de solides avances en Ontario, au Qu\u00e9bec et dans le Canada atlantique, mais accusent un retard en Alberta, dans les Prairies et en Colombie-Britannique. Une victoire lib\u00e9rale semble probable, mais une majorit\u00e9 reste hors de port\u00e9e.<br><br><strong>Patriotisme \u00e9conomique : Une identit\u00e9, pas une opinion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La conclusion la plus frappante de la deuxi\u00e8me vague de l'indice du patriotisme \u00e9conomique est le peu de changements observ\u00e9s malgr\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode des achats des f\u00eates et les tensions commerciales en cours. La r\u00e9partition des Canadiens entre les cat\u00e9gories de patriotisme \u00e9conomique faible, mod\u00e9r\u00e9 et \u00e9lev\u00e9 est pratiquement identique \u00e0 celle des r\u00e9sultats d'ao\u00fbt.<br><br>\u201c Lorsque les donn\u00e9es de sondage ne bougent pas du tout pendant des mois, en particulier lors d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements majeurs comme les f\u00eates, vous ne mesurez plus une opinion ou une attitude. Vous mesurez une identit\u00e9 \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano.<br><br><strong>La fracture partisane se creuse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le patriotisme \u00e9conomique se divise nettement selon les lignes partidaires :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\">48% des \u00e9lecteurs lib\u00e9raux font preuve d&#x27;un fort patriotisme \u00e9conomique, contre seulement 17% des \u00e9lecteurs conservateurs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">51% des \u00e9lecteurs conservateurs font preuve d&#x27;un faible patriotisme \u00e9conomique, contre seulement 9% des partisans lib\u00e9raux<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">M\u00eame les \u00e9lecteurs du Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois (29% : patriotisme \u00e9conomique fort) affichent un taux pr\u00e8s de deux fois sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui des conservateurs<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Cela cr\u00e9e deux solitudes \u2014 et je p\u00e8se mes mots \u201d, a fait remarquer Angolano. \u201c Les \u00e9lecteurs lib\u00e9raux sont dispos\u00e9s \u00e0 payer plus cher pour des produits canadiens et \u00e0 accepter un niveau de vie inf\u00e9rieur au nom de la souverainet\u00e9. Les \u00e9lecteurs conservateurs veulent exactement le contraire : des produits \u00e9trangers moins chers, y compris l'essence, et un niveau de vie plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, m\u00eame si cela implique une int\u00e9gration plus pouss\u00e9e avec les \u00c9tats-Unis. \u201d<br><br><strong>Les Canadiens joignent toujours le geste \u00e0 la parole<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malgr\u00e9 quatre mois de pression \u00e9conomique suppl\u00e9mentaire, les comportements d'achat patriotiques des Canadiens sont rest\u00e9s remarquablement stables :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\">73% recherchent activement les labels \u201c Fabriqu\u00e9 au Canada \u201d lorsqu&#x27;ils font leurs achats (aucun changement par rapport aux 74% d&#x27;ao\u00fbt)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">67% ont modifi\u00e9 leur comportement d&#x27;achat en raison de diff\u00e9rends commerciaux ou de tensions politiques (-4% par rapport au mois d&#x27;ao\u00fbt)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Les 65% ont pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 des produits canadiens plus chers \u00e0 des alternatives \u00e9trang\u00e8res moins ch\u00e8res (-1% par rapport au mois d&#x27;ao\u00fbt)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><br><strong>Le foss\u00e9 des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le patriotisme \u00e9conomique augmente consid\u00e9rablement avec l'\u00e2ge, cr\u00e9ant une fracture g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle qui s'aligne sur les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences partisanes. Les jeunes Canadiens qui connaissent des difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques aigu\u00ebs sont beaucoup moins susceptibles d'adh\u00e9rer au patriotisme \u00e9conomique \u2014 non pas qu'ils d\u00e9testent le Canada, mais parce qu'ils estiment que le pays a rompu le contrat social avec eux.<br><br>\u201c Les jeunes Canadiens n'ont pas l'impression d'avoir le luxe d'\u00eatre patriotes envers un pays qui les laisse tomber, et encore moins d'y faire des sacrifices financiers \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano.<br><br><strong>Pourquoi rien ne change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tant Carney que Poilievre ont conquis leurs \u00e9lectorats respectifs, et ces segments sont irr\u00e9ductibles, immuables et incompatibles. Si vous appartenez au camp lib\u00e9ral, vous ne trouvez rien d'attrayant chez Poilievre, et vice versa. Aucun des deux chefs n'a fait de gestes envers les \u00e9lecteurs de l'autre camp.<br><br>\u201c Poilievre survivra probablement \u00e0 son examen de leadership de janvier parce que sa base est acquise. Mais personne d'autre n'est int\u00e9ress\u00e9 \u201d, a fait remarquer Angolano. \u201c Et il ne peut pas s'\u00e9largir sans trahir ses partisans de la premi\u00e8re heure \u2014 le faible patriotisme \u00e9conomique est d\u00e9sormais une valeur conservatrice. \u201d<br><br><strong>Cons\u00e9quences pour 2025 et au-del\u00e0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que le Canada ne conna\u00eet pas une concurrence politique normale, mais plut\u00f4t une incompatibilit\u00e9 fondamentale entre deux visions du pays. <br><br>\u201c La prochaine \u00e9lection ne r\u00e9soudra pas cette tension, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano. Elle nous donnera simplement un autre instantan\u00e9 d'une nation divis\u00e9e qui ne parvient pas \u00e0 d\u00e9cider dans quelle direction elle veut aller. \u201d<br><br><br><strong>\u00c0 propos de l'indice du patriotisme \u00e9conomique<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'indice de patriotisme \u00e9conomique de Pallas Data mesure la volont\u00e9 des Canadiens de sacrifier leur prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 et leur bien-\u00eatre au profit de l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9conomique. L'indice repose sur quatre questions cl\u00e9s concernant :<br><br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\">Payer plus cher pour l'essence et la nourriture import\u00e9e si cela aide \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger les emplois canadiens<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Volont\u00e9 de payer plus cher pour des produits de fabrication canadienne par rapport \u00e0 des produits \u00e9trangers identiques<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Volont\u00e9 de privil\u00e9gier l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9conomique au d\u00e9triment d'une croissance \u00e9conomique maximale<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Volont\u00e9 d'accepter un niveau de vie inf\u00e9rieur pour pr\u00e9server l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9conomique du Canada<br><br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les r\u00e9pondants re\u00e7oivent -2 points pour chaque d\u00e9claration avec laquelle ils sont en d\u00e9saccord total, -1 pour chaque d\u00e9claration avec laquelle ils sont plut\u00f4t en d\u00e9saccord, +1 pour chaque d\u00e9claration avec laquelle ils sont plut\u00f4t d'accord, et +2 pour chaque d\u00e9claration avec laquelle ils sont tout \u00e0 fait d'accord. Aucun point n'a \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9 pour les r\u00e9ponses neutres ou les r\u00e9ponses \u201c ne sait pas \u201d.<br><br>Les r\u00e9pondants ont ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 class\u00e9s comme suit :<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\"><strong>-8 \u00e0 -3 :<\/strong> Faible patriotisme \u00e9conomique<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>-2 \u00e0 +2 :<\/strong> Patriotisme \u00e9conomique mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>+3 \u00e0 +8 :<\/strong> Patriotisme \u00e9conomique fort<br><br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><br><strong>M\u00e9thodologie<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'analyse de ce rapport est bas\u00e9e sur les r\u00e9sultats d'un sondage men\u00e9 du 13 au 15 d\u00e9cembre aupr\u00e8s d'un \u00e9chantillon de 1074 adultes, \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant au Canada et ayant le droit de vote aux \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 l'aide d'entretiens t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9s via PharoVoice, la plateforme de sondage vocal par IA de Pallas Data, et la technologie de r\u00e9ponse vocale interactive (RVI). <br><br>Les r\u00e9pondants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 interrog\u00e9s sur des lignes fixes et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones cellulaires. L'\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 par \u00e2ge, sexe et r\u00e9gion selon le recensement de 2021. Le sondage vise \u00e0 repr\u00e9senter la population adulte au Canada.<br><br>La marge d&#x27;erreur de ce sondage est de +\/- 3%, avec un niveau de confiance de 95%. Les marges d&#x27;erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es dans chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il se peut que les totaux ne correspondent pas exactement \u00e0 100% en raison des arrondis.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"embed-pdf-viewer-wrapper aligncenter wp-block-embed-pdf-viewer-pdf\"><iframe class=\"embed-pdf-viewer lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/PallasData-Canada-EconomicPatriotismIndexPart2-17December2025.pdf\" height=\"600\" width=\"600\" title=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(TORONTO, le 18 d\u00e9cembre 2025) \u2013 Le paysage politique canadien reste fig\u00e9, alors que deux visions fondamentalement incompatibles de l\u2019avenir du pays se sont cristallis\u00e9es, le patriotisme \u00e9conomique apparaissant comme la ligne de fracture d\u00e9terminante, selon un nouveau sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Pallas Data. Dans le cadre de la deuxi\u00e8me vague de l\u2019Indice de patriotisme \u00e9conomique du Canada (EPI), Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 074 adultes \u00e0 travers le Canada du 13 au 15 d\u00e9cembre 2025 \u00e0 l\u2019aide de PharoVoice, la plateforme d\u2019enqu\u00eate vocale bas\u00e9e sur l\u2019IA de Pallas Data, et d\u2019un syst\u00e8me IVR. La marge d\u2019erreur est de +\/- 3% avec un niveau de confiance de 95%. Les intentions de vote au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral restent stables Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s ou ayant une pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence, les Lib\u00e9raux, men\u00e9s par Mark Carney, recueillent 41% de soutien, tandis que les Conservateurs, sous la houlette de Pierre Poilievre, suivent avec 38%. Le NPD recueille 8% et le Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 8%. \u201c En ce qui concerne les intentions de vote au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, rien n\u2019a chang\u00e9 depuis les \u00e9lections \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201c Malgr\u00e9 la d\u00e9fection spectaculaire de Michael Ma lors de la f\u00eate de No\u00ebl des lib\u00e9raux et les rumeurs selon lesquelles d\u2019autres d\u00e9put\u00e9s conservateurs pourraient changer de camp, les fondamentaux n\u2019ont pas boug\u00e9 depuis le mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt. \u201d Les lib\u00e9raux conservent une solide avance en Ontario, au Qu\u00e9bec et dans les provinces de l\u2019Atlantique, mais sont \u00e0 la tra\u00eene en Alberta, dans les Prairies et en Colombie-Britannique. Une victoire lib\u00e9rale semble probable, mais la majorit\u00e9 reste hors de port\u00e9e. Le patriotisme \u00e9conomique : une identit\u00e9, pas une opinion Le r\u00e9sultat le plus frappant de la deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9dition de l\u2019indice du patriotisme \u00e9conomique est le peu de changements observ\u00e9s malgr\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode des achats de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e et les tensions commerciales persistantes. La r\u00e9partition des Canadiens entre les cat\u00e9gories de patriotisme \u00e9conomique faible, mod\u00e9r\u00e9 et \u00e9lev\u00e9 est pratiquement identique \u00e0 celle des r\u00e9sultats d\u2019ao\u00fbt. \u201c Lorsque les donn\u00e9es des sondages ne bougent pas du tout au fil des mois \u2014 en particulier lors d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements majeurs comme les f\u00eates de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e \u2014, on ne mesure plus une opinion ou une attitude. On mesure une identit\u00e9 \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. Le clivage partisan s\u2019accentue Le patriotisme \u00e9conomique divise de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cisive selon les lignes partisanes : \u201c Cela cr\u00e9e deux solitudes \u2014 et je l\u2019entends au sens litt\u00e9ral \u201d, a not\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201c Les \u00e9lecteurs lib\u00e9raux sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 payer plus cher pour des produits canadiens et \u00e0 accepter un niveau de vie inf\u00e9rieur au nom de la souverainet\u00e9. Les \u00e9lecteurs conservateurs veulent exactement le contraire : des produits \u00e9trangers moins chers, y compris l\u2019essence, et un niveau de vie plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, m\u00eame si cela implique une int\u00e9gration plus pouss\u00e9e avec les \u00c9tats-Unis. \u201d Les Canadiens continuent de joindre le geste \u00e0 la parole Malgr\u00e9 quatre mois de pression \u00e9conomique suppl\u00e9mentaire, les comportements d\u2019achat patriotiques des Canadiens sont rest\u00e9s remarquablement stables : Le foss\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnel Le patriotisme \u00e9conomique augmente consid\u00e9rablement avec l\u2019\u00e2ge, cr\u00e9ant une fracture g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle qui correspond aux pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences partisanes. Les jeunes Canadiens confront\u00e9s \u00e0 de graves difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques sont bien moins enclins \u00e0 adh\u00e9rer au patriotisme \u00e9conomique \u2014 non pas parce qu\u2019ils d\u00e9testent le Canada, mais parce qu\u2019ils estiment que le pays a rompu son contrat social avec eux. \u2019 Les jeunes Canadiens n\u2019ont pas l\u2019impression de pouvoir se permettre d\u2019\u00eatre patriotes envers un pays qui les laisse tomber, et encore moins de faire des sacrifices financiers pour lui \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. Pourquoi rien ne change ? Carney et Poilievre ont tous deux consolid\u00e9 leurs segments d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs, et ces segments sont in\u00e9branlables, immuables et inconciliables. Si vous faites partie du camp lib\u00e9ral, vous ne trouvez rien d\u2019attrayant chez Poilievre, et inversement. Aucun des deux dirigeants n\u2019a fait de gestes envers les \u00e9lecteurs de l\u2019autre camp. \u201d Poilievre survivra probablement \u00e0 son examen de leadership en janvier car sa base est solide. Mais personne d\u2019autre ne s\u2019y int\u00e9resse \u201c, a not\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201d Et il ne peut pas \u00e9largir sa base sans trahir ses partisans fid\u00e8les : un faible patriotisme \u00e9conomique est d\u00e9sormais une valeur conservatrice. \u201c Cons\u00e9quences pour 2025 et au-del\u00e0 Les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que le Canada ne conna\u00eet pas une concurrence politique normale, mais plut\u00f4t une incompatibilit\u00e9 fondamentale entre deux visions du pays. \u201d Les prochaines \u00e9lections ne r\u00e9soudront pas cette tension \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201d Elles ne feront que nous donner un nouvel aper\u00e7u d\u2019une nation divis\u00e9e, incapable de d\u00e9cider de la direction qu\u2019elle souhaite prendre. \u201c \u00c0 propos de l\u2019indice de patriotisme \u00e9conomique L\u2019indice de patriotisme \u00e9conomique de Pallas Data mesure la volont\u00e9 des Canadiens de sacrifier leur prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 et leur bien-\u00eatre au profit de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9conomique. Cet indice repose sur quatre questions cl\u00e9s portant sur : Les personnes interrog\u00e9es re\u00e7oivent -2 points pour chaque affirmation avec laquelle elles sont en total d\u00e9saccord, -1 pour chaque affirmation avec laquelle elles sont plut\u00f4t en d\u00e9saccord, +1 pour chaque affirmation avec laquelle elles sont plut\u00f4t d\u2019accord, et +2 pour chaque affirmation avec laquelle elles sont tout \u00e0 fait d\u2019accord. Aucun point n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9 pour les r\u00e9ponses neutres ou les r\u00e9ponses \u201d je ne sais pas \u2019. Les personnes interrog\u00e9es ont ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 class\u00e9es comme suit : M\u00e9thodologie L\u2019analyse pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e dans ce rapport repose sur les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019une enqu\u00eate men\u00e9e du 13 au 15 d\u00e9cembre aupr\u00e8s d\u2019un \u00e9chantillon de 1 074 adultes \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant au Canada et ayant le droit de vote aux \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019entretiens t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9s via PharoVoice, la plateforme de sondage vocal aliment\u00e9e par l\u2019IA de Pallas Data, et la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR). Les personnes interrog\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 contact\u00e9es sur des lignes fixes et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones portables. L\u2019\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de l\u2019\u00e2ge, du sexe et de la r\u00e9gion, conform\u00e9ment au recensement de 2021. Ce sondage vise \u00e0 \u00eatre repr\u00e9sentatif de la population adulte du Canada. La marge d\u2019erreur du sondage est de +\/- 3%, avec un niveau de confiance de 95%. Les marges d\u2019erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es pour chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon. Les totaux peuvent ne pas totaliser 100% en raison des arrondis.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polls"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge - Pallas Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/12\/18\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge - Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(TORONTO, 18 December 2025) \u2013 Canada&#8217;s political landscape remains frozen in place as two fundamentally incompatible visions of the country&#8217;s future have crystallized, with economic patriotism emerging as the defining fault line, a new Pallas Data poll has found. In the second wave of Canada&#8217;s Economic Patriotism Index (EPI), Pallas surveyed 1,074 adults across Canada from December 13th-15th, 2025 using PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and IVR. The margin of error is +\/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Federal Voting Intentions Remain Static Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, have 41% support, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail at 38%. The NDP has 8% and the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 8%. &#8220;Regarding federal voting intentions, nothing has changed since the election,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;Despite Michael Ma&#8217;s dramatic defection at the Liberal Christmas Party and rumours of more Conservative MPs crossing the floor, the fundamentals haven&#8217;t budged since August.&#8221; The Liberals maintain solid leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, but trail in Alberta, the Prairies, and British Columbia. A Liberal victory appears likely, but a majority remains out of reach. Economic Patriotism: An Identity, Not an Opinion The most striking finding from Round 2 of the Economic Patriotism Index is how little has changed despite the holiday shopping season and ongoing trade tensions. The distribution of Canadians across the low, moderate, and high economic patriotism categories is virtually identical to that in August&#8217;s results. &#8220;When polling data doesn&#8217;t move at all over months\u2014especially through major events like the holidays\u2014you&#8217;re not measuring an opinion or attitude anymore. You&#8217;re measuring an identity,&#8221; said Angolano. The Partisan Divide Deepens Economic patriotism splits decisively along party lines: &#8220;This creates two solitudes\u2014and I mean that literally,&#8221; noted Angolano. &#8220;Liberal voters are willing to pay more for Canadian goods and accept lower living standards for sovereignty. Conservative voters want exactly the opposite: cheaper foreign goods, including gasoline, and higher living standards even if it means deeper integration with the United States.&#8221; Canadians Still Walking the Walk Despite four months of additional economic pressure, Canadians&#8217; patriotic purchasing behaviours have held remarkably steady: The Generational Divide Economic patriotism increases significantly with age, creating a generational fault line that aligns with partisan preferences. Younger Canadians experiencing acute economic hardship are far less likely to embrace economic patriotism\u2014not because they hate Canada, but because they feel the country has broken its social contract with them. &#8220;Younger Canadians don&#8217;t feel they have the luxury of being patriotic about a country that&#8217;s letting them down, much less making financial sacrifices for it,&#8221; said Angolano. Why Nothing Changes Both Carney and Poilievre have their voter segments locked down, and these segments are intractable, immutable, and incommensurate. If you fall in the Liberal camp, you find nothing appealing about Poilievre, and vice versa. Neither leader has made any overtures to voters on the other side. &#8220;Poilievre will likely survive his January leadership review because his base is locked. But no one else is interested,&#8221; noted Angolano. &#8220;And he can&#8217;t expand without betraying his core supporters\u2014low economic patriotism is a Conservative value now.&#8221; Implications for 2025 and Beyond The data reveal Canada isn&#8217;t experiencing normal political competition, but rather a fundamental incompatibility between two visions of the country. &#8220;The next election won&#8217;t resolve this tension,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;It will simply give us another snapshot of a divided nation that can&#8217;t decide which direction it wants to go.&#8221; About the Economic Patriotism Index Pallas Data&#8217;s Economic Patriotism Index measures Canadians&#8217; willingness to sacrifice prosperity and well-being for economic independence. The index is based on four key questions about: Respondents receive -2 points for each statement they strongly disagreed with, -1 for every statement they somewhat disagreed with, +1 for every statement they somewhat agreed with, and +2 for every statement they strongly agreed with. No points were awarded for neutral responses or &#8220;don&#8217;t know&#8221; answers. Respondents were then categorized as follows: Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 13th-15th among a sample of 1074 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews via PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/12\/18\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-18T19:34:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-18T19:49:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Pallas-Canada-Poll3.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1586\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1075\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pallas Data\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2ba337b9f439fbf5971c35efec1932c1\"},\"headline\":\"Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-18T19:34:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-18T19:49:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":947,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/07\\\/Pallas-Canada-Poll3.png?fit=1586%2C1075&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Polls\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/18\\\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge - 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Pallas Data","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/12\/18\/pallas-data-federal-poll-political-deadlock-as-two-canadas-emerge\/","og_locale":"fr_CA","og_type":"article","og_title":"Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge - Pallas Data","og_description":"(TORONTO, 18 December 2025) \u2013 Canada&#8217;s political landscape remains frozen in place as two fundamentally incompatible visions of the country&#8217;s future have crystallized, with economic patriotism emerging as the defining fault line, a new Pallas Data poll has found. In the second wave of Canada&#8217;s Economic Patriotism Index (EPI), Pallas surveyed 1,074 adults across Canada from December 13th-15th, 2025 using PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and IVR. The margin of error is +\/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Federal Voting Intentions Remain Static Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, have 41% support, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail at 38%. The NDP has 8% and the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 8%. &#8220;Regarding federal voting intentions, nothing has changed since the election,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;Despite Michael Ma&#8217;s dramatic defection at the Liberal Christmas Party and rumours of more Conservative MPs crossing the floor, the fundamentals haven&#8217;t budged since August.&#8221; The Liberals maintain solid leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, but trail in Alberta, the Prairies, and British Columbia. A Liberal victory appears likely, but a majority remains out of reach. Economic Patriotism: An Identity, Not an Opinion The most striking finding from Round 2 of the Economic Patriotism Index is how little has changed despite the holiday shopping season and ongoing trade tensions. The distribution of Canadians across the low, moderate, and high economic patriotism categories is virtually identical to that in August&#8217;s results. &#8220;When polling data doesn&#8217;t move at all over months\u2014especially through major events like the holidays\u2014you&#8217;re not measuring an opinion or attitude anymore. You&#8217;re measuring an identity,&#8221; said Angolano. The Partisan Divide Deepens Economic patriotism splits decisively along party lines: &#8220;This creates two solitudes\u2014and I mean that literally,&#8221; noted Angolano. &#8220;Liberal voters are willing to pay more for Canadian goods and accept lower living standards for sovereignty. Conservative voters want exactly the opposite: cheaper foreign goods, including gasoline, and higher living standards even if it means deeper integration with the United States.&#8221; Canadians Still Walking the Walk Despite four months of additional economic pressure, Canadians&#8217; patriotic purchasing behaviours have held remarkably steady: The Generational Divide Economic patriotism increases significantly with age, creating a generational fault line that aligns with partisan preferences. Younger Canadians experiencing acute economic hardship are far less likely to embrace economic patriotism\u2014not because they hate Canada, but because they feel the country has broken its social contract with them. &#8220;Younger Canadians don&#8217;t feel they have the luxury of being patriotic about a country that&#8217;s letting them down, much less making financial sacrifices for it,&#8221; said Angolano. Why Nothing Changes Both Carney and Poilievre have their voter segments locked down, and these segments are intractable, immutable, and incommensurate. If you fall in the Liberal camp, you find nothing appealing about Poilievre, and vice versa. Neither leader has made any overtures to voters on the other side. &#8220;Poilievre will likely survive his January leadership review because his base is locked. But no one else is interested,&#8221; noted Angolano. &#8220;And he can&#8217;t expand without betraying his core supporters\u2014low economic patriotism is a Conservative value now.&#8221; Implications for 2025 and Beyond The data reveal Canada isn&#8217;t experiencing normal political competition, but rather a fundamental incompatibility between two visions of the country. &#8220;The next election won&#8217;t resolve this tension,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;It will simply give us another snapshot of a divided nation that can&#8217;t decide which direction it wants to go.&#8221; About the Economic Patriotism Index Pallas Data&#8217;s Economic Patriotism Index measures Canadians&#8217; willingness to sacrifice prosperity and well-being for economic independence. The index is based on four key questions about: Respondents receive -2 points for each statement they strongly disagreed with, -1 for every statement they somewhat disagreed with, +1 for every statement they somewhat agreed with, and +2 for every statement they strongly agreed with. No points were awarded for neutral responses or &#8220;don&#8217;t know&#8221; answers. Respondents were then categorized as follows: Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 13th-15th among a sample of 1074 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews via PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. 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