{"id":1577,"date":"2025-03-24T22:16:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T22:16:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/?p=1577"},"modified":"2025-03-24T22:27:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-24T22:27:02","slug":"pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/03\/24\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Sondage f\u00e9d\u00e9ral Pallas : PLC 42, PCC 38, NPD 8, Vert 2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(TORONTO, 24 mars 2025) \u2013 La campagne \u00e9lectorale f\u00e9d\u00e9rale d\u00e9clench\u00e9e pour le 45e scrutin commence avec les lib\u00e9raux au pouvoir devan\u00e7ant les conservateurs de quatre points, selon un sondage de Pallas Data.<br><br>Le 22 mars, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 225 adultes canadiens \u00e2g\u00e9s d&#x27;au moins 18 ans et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l&#x27;aide d&#x27;un syst\u00e8me de r\u00e9ponse vocale interactive (IVR). La marge d&#x27;erreur est de \u00b1 2,81 TP3T, avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T.<br><br>Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s et ind\u00e9cis, les Lib\u00e9raux recueillent 42% (+8% par rapport au dernier sondage de Pallas en mars), tandis que les Conservateurs en obtiennent 38% (-2%). Le NPD recueille 8% (-4%), tandis que les Verts en recueillent 2% (inchang\u00e9). Le Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois recueille 7% (inchang\u00e9), dont 30% au Qu\u00e9bec.<br><br>\u201c Cette campagne commence en d\u00e9fiant toutes les attentes alors que les lib\u00e9raux se retrouvent en territoire majoritaire au d\u00e9but de la campagne \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201c Pierre Poilievre \u2013 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en deux ans \u2013 doit courir apr\u00e8s les autres. \u201d<br><br>L'anatomie de la majorit\u00e9 lib\u00e9rale provient de ses fortes avancements r\u00e9gionaux au Canada atlantique, au Qu\u00e9bec, en Ontario et en Colombie-Britannique.<br><br><em>R\u00e9partition r\u00e9gionale :<\/em><br>\u2022 Colombie-Britannique : Lib\u00e9raux 42%, Conservateurs 39%, NPD 9%, Verts 7%<br>\u2022 Alberta : Conservateurs 66%, Lib\u00e9raux 29%, NPD 4%<br>\u2022 Prairies : Conservateurs 42%, Lib\u00e9raux 35%, NPD 21%<br>\u2022 Ontario : Lib\u00e9raux 48%, Conservateurs 40%, NPD 8%, PPC 3%<br>\u2022 Qu\u00e9bec : Lib\u00e9raux 40%, Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 30%, Conservateurs 20%, NPD 6%<br>\u2022 Atlantique : Lib\u00e9raux 48%, Conservateurs 30%, NPD 16%, Verts 4%<br><br><em>Aper\u00e7u d\u00e9mographique :<\/em><br>Les lib\u00e9raux affichent une force particuli\u00e8re aupr\u00e8s des seniors (55% chez les plus de 65 ans) et des femmes (43%), tandis que les conservateurs sont en t\u00eate chez les \u00e9lecteurs \u00e2g\u00e9s de 35 \u00e0 49 ans (45%). Le NPD obtient ses meilleurs r\u00e9sultats aupr\u00e8s des jeunes \u00e9lecteurs (13% chez les 18-34 ans) et dans les provinces des Prairies (21%).<br><br>\u201c Nous avons constat\u00e9 cette m\u00eame fracture lors des \u00e9lections de l'an dernier en Colombie-Britannique, a poursuivi le Dr Angolano. Les lib\u00e9raux m\u00e8nent chez les Canadiens de plus de 50 ans, tandis que les conservateurs m\u00e8nent chez les moins de 50 ans. Le groupe le plus \u00e2g\u00e9 semble satisfait du statu quo, tandis que l'autre souhaite le changement. \u201d<br><br><em>L'effet Carney profite aux lib\u00e9raux<\/em><strong><br><\/strong>Les r\u00e9sultats obtenus par le Premier ministre Mark Carney d\u00e9passent les pr\u00e9visions hypoth\u00e9tiques du sondage Pallas r\u00e9alis\u00e9 il y a un mois, qui donnaient les Lib\u00e9raux \u00e0 39% avec Carney \u00e0 leur t\u00eate. <br><br><em>Le soutien conservateur reste r\u00e9silient<\/em><br>Malgr\u00e9 son retard, le Parti conservateur continue d&#x27;enregistrer de bons r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9gionaux, avec 39% de voix en Colombie-Britannique et 40% en Ontario \u2013 des chiffres historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui indiqueraient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement une position comp\u00e9titive. Cependant, l&#x27;effondrement du soutien au NPD a profit\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re disproportionn\u00e9e aux lib\u00e9raux.<br><br><em>Le NPD fait face \u00e0 un creux historique potentiel<\/em><br>Avec 8% \u00e0 l&#x27;\u00e9chelle nationale, le NDP est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une crise potentielle qui pourrait le r\u00e9duire \u00e0 seulement un ou deux si\u00e8ges \u2014 son pire r\u00e9sultat depuis 1993. Il pourrait toutefois conna\u00eetre un certain rebond pendant la campagne \u00e9lectorale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Le Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois maintient une position forte<\/em><br>Avec un score de 30% au Qu\u00e9bec, contre les 40% des lib\u00e9raux, le Bloc entame la campagne bien au-dessus de son \u2019 seuil critique \u201c historique de 23%, au-del\u00e0 duquel il risquerait de subir une d\u00e9faite \u00e9lectorale aussi cuisante qu&#x27;en 2011. Cela lui permet d\u2019\u00eatre en mesure de conserver la plupart de ses si\u00e8ges actuels malgr\u00e9 les gains des lib\u00e9raux au Qu\u00e9bec.<br><br><em>M\u00e9thodologie :<\/em><br>L'analyse de ce rapport est bas\u00e9e sur les r\u00e9sultats d'un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 le 22 mars 2025 aupr\u00e8s d'un \u00e9chantillon de 1245 adultes, \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant au Canada et ayant le droit de vote aux \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 \u00e0 l'aide d'entretiens t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9s utilisant la technologie de r\u00e9ponse vocale interactive (RVI).<br><br>Les r\u00e9pondants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 interrog\u00e9s sur des lignes fixes et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones cellulaires. L'\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 par \u00e2ge, sexe et r\u00e9gion selon le recensement de 2021. Le sondage vise \u00e0 repr\u00e9senter la population adulte au Canada.<br><br>La marge d&#x27;erreur de ce sondage est de +\/- 2,81 TP3T, avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Les marges d&#x27;erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es dans chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon.<br><br>Il se peut que les totaux ne correspondent pas exactement \u00e0 100% en raison des arrondis.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"embed-pdf-viewer-wrapper aligncenter wp-block-embed-pdf-viewer-pdf\"><iframe class=\"embed-pdf-viewer lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/PallasData-Canada-PreWrit-FedVoteIntentions-24March2025-compressed_3.pdf\" height=\"600\" width=\"600\" title=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(TORONTO, le 24 mars 2025) \u2013 La campagne pour la 45e \u00e9lection f\u00e9d\u00e9rale d\u00e9bute alors que les lib\u00e9raux au pouvoir devancent les conservateurs de quatre points, selon un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Pallas Data. Le 22 mars, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 225 Canadiens adultes \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l\u2019aide de la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR). La marge d\u2019erreur est de +\/- 2,81 TP3T avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s ou ayant une pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence, les lib\u00e9raux recueillent 42% (+8% par rapport au dernier sondage de Pallas en mars), tandis que les conservateurs en recueillent 38% (-2%). Le NPD recueille 8% (-4%), tandis que les Verts obtiennent 2% (aucun changement). Le Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois recueille 7% (aucun changement), dont 30% au Qu\u00e9bec. \u2019 Cette campagne d\u00e9fie d\u2019embl\u00e9e toutes les attentes, les lib\u00e9raux se retrouvant en position de majorit\u00e9 d\u00e8s le coup d\u2019envoi de la campagne \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201d Pierre Poilievre doit, pour la premi\u00e8re fois en deux ans, rattraper son retard. \u201c La majorit\u00e9 lib\u00e9rale s\u2019explique par leurs solides avances r\u00e9gionales dans les provinces de l\u2019Atlantique, au Qu\u00e9bec, en Ontario et en Colombie-Britannique. R\u00e9partition r\u00e9gionale :\u2022 Colombie-Britannique : Lib\u00e9raux 42%, Conservateurs 39%, NPD 9%, Verts 7%\u2022 Alberta : Conservateurs 66%, Lib\u00e9raux 29%, NPD 4%\u2022 Prairies : Conservateurs 42%, Lib\u00e9raux 35%, NPD 21%\u2022 Ontario : Lib\u00e9raux 48%, Conservateurs 40%, NPD 8%, PPC 3%\u2022 Qu\u00e9bec : Lib\u00e9raux 40%, Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 30%, Conservateurs 20%, NPD 6%\u2022 Provinces de l&#x27;Atlantique : Lib\u00e9raux 48%, Conservateurs 30%, NPD 16%, Verts 4% Donn\u00e9es d\u00e9mographiques :Les lib\u00e9raux affichent une force particuli\u00e8re aupr\u00e8s des seniors (55% chez les 65 ans et plus) et des femmes (43%), tandis que les conservateurs sont en t\u00eate chez les \u00e9lecteurs \u00e2g\u00e9s de 35 \u00e0 49 ans (45%). Le NPD obtient ses meilleurs r\u00e9sultats aupr\u00e8s des jeunes \u00e9lecteurs (13% chez les 18-34 ans) et dans les provinces des Prairies (21%). \u201d Nous avons observ\u00e9 ce m\u00eame clivage lors des \u00e9lections de l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re en Colombie-Britannique \u201c, a poursuivi le Dr Angolano. \u201d Les lib\u00e9raux sont en t\u00eate chez les Canadiens de plus de 50 ans, tandis que les conservateurs dominent chez les moins de 50 ans. Les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s semblent satisfaits du statu quo, tandis que les autres souhaitent un changement. \u201c L\u201d\u2019 effet Carney \u2019 profite aux lib\u00e9raux : le leadership du Premier ministre Mark Carney d\u00e9passe les r\u00e9sultats du sondage hypoth\u00e9tique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Pallas il y a un mois, qui donnait les lib\u00e9raux \u00e0 39% avec Carney \u00e0 leur t\u00eate. Le soutien aux conservateurs reste solide. Malgr\u00e9 leur retard, le Parti conservateur maintient de bons r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9gionaux, avec un soutien de 39% en Colombie-Britannique et de 40% en Ontario \u2013 des chiffres historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui indiqueraient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement une position comp\u00e9titive. Cependant, l\u2019effondrement du soutien au NPD a profit\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re disproportionn\u00e9e aux lib\u00e9raux. Le NPD risque d\u2019atteindre un plus bas historique : avec 8% \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, le NPD est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une crise potentielle qui pourrait le r\u00e9duire \u00e0 seulement un ou deux si\u00e8ges \u2013 son pire r\u00e9sultat depuis 1993. Il pourrait toutefois conna\u00eetre un certain rebond pendant la campagne \u00e9lectorale. Le Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois conserve une position solide Avec un score de 301 TP3T au Qu\u00e9bec contre 401 TP3T pour les lib\u00e9raux, le Bloc entame la campagne bien au-dessus de son \u201c seuil critique \u201d historique de 231 TP3T, au-del\u00e0 duquel il subirait une d\u00e9faite \u00e9lectorale similaire \u00e0 celle de 2011. Cela lui permet d\u2019envisager de conserver la plupart de ses si\u00e8ges actuels malgr\u00e9 les gains des lib\u00e9raux au Qu\u00e9bec. M\u00e9thodologie : L\u2019analyse pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e dans ce rapport repose sur les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 le 22 mars 2025 aupr\u00e8s d\u2019un \u00e9chantillon de 1 245 adultes \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant au Canada et habilit\u00e9s \u00e0 voter aux \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 au moyen d\u2019entretiens t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9s utilisant la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR). Les personnes interrog\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 contact\u00e9es sur des lignes fixes et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones portables. L\u2019\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de l\u2019\u00e2ge, du sexe et de la r\u00e9gion, conform\u00e9ment au recensement de 2021. Le sondage vise \u00e0 \u00eatre repr\u00e9sentatif de la population adulte du Canada. La marge d\u2019erreur du sondage est de \u00b1 2,81 TP3T, avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Les marges d\u2019erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es dans chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon. Les totaux peuvent ne pas atteindre 1001 TP3T en raison des arrondis.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polls"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2 - Pallas Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/03\/24\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2 - Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(TORONTO, 24 March 2025) \u2013 The 45th federal election campaign begins with the governing Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points, a Pallas Data poll has found. On March 22nd, Pallas surveyed 1225 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +\/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 42% (+8% from Pallas&#8217; last poll in March), while the Conservatives have 38% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (-4%), while the Greens have 2% (no change). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% (no change), with 30% in Quebec. &#8220;This campaign begins defying every expectation with the Liberals finding themselves in majority territory as the campaign begins,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;Pierre Poilievre &#8211; for the first time in two years &#8211; has to play catch-up.&#8221; The Liberal majority&#8217;s anatomy comes from their strong regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. Regional Breakdown:\u2022 British Columbia: Liberal 42%, Conservative 39%, NDP 9%, Green 7%\u2022 Alberta: Conservative 66%, Liberal 29%, NDP 4%\u2022 Prairies: Conservative 42%, Liberal 35%, NDP 21%\u2022 Ontario: Liberal 48%, Conservative 40%, NDP 8%, PPC 3%\u2022 Quebec: Liberal 40%, Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 30%, Conservative 20%, NDP 6%\u2022 Atlantic: Liberal 48%, Conservative 30%, NDP 16%, Green 4% Demographic Insights:The Liberals show particular strength among seniors (55% among 65+) and women (43%), while Conservatives lead with voters aged 35-49 (45%). The NDP performs best with younger voters (13% among the 18-34 cohort) and in Prairie provinces (21%). &#8220;We&#8217;ve seen this same divide in last year&#8217;s British Columbia elections,&#8221; continued Dr. Angolano. &#8220;The Liberals lead among Canadians over the age of 50 while the Conservatives lead among those younger than 50. The older group seems happy with the status quo while the other wants change.&#8221; Carney Effect Delivers for LiberalsPrime Minister Mark Carney&#8217;s leadership is outperforming Pallas&#8217; hypothetical polling from a month ago, when polling showed the Liberals at 39% with Carney as leader. Conservative Support Remains ResilientDespite falling behind, the Conservative Party maintains strong regional performances with 39% support in British Columbia and 40% in Ontario \u2013 historically strong numbers that would typically signal a competitive position. However, the collapse of NDP support has disproportionately benefited the Liberals. NDP Faces Potential Historic LowAt 8% nationwide, the NDP is facing a potential crisis that could reduce it to just one or two seats\u2014its worst showing since 1993. However, they may experience some rebound during the campaign period. Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois Maintains Strong PositionWith 30% support in Quebec against the Liberals&#8217; 40%, the Bloc begins the campaign well above its historical &#8220;redline&#8221; of 23%, where they would face an electoral blowout similar to 2011. This positions them to potentially maintain most of their current seats despite Liberal gains in Quebec. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 22nd, 2025 among a sample of 1245 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/03\/24\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-24T22:16:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-24T22:27:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Pallas-Canada-Poll3.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1586\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1075\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pallas Data\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2ba337b9f439fbf5971c35efec1932c1\"},\"headline\":\"Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-24T22:16:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-24T22:27:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":549,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/07\\\/Pallas-Canada-Poll3.png?fit=1586%2C1075&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Polls\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/24\\\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2 - 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Pallas Data","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/03\/24\/pallas-federal-poll-lpc-42-cpc-38-ndp-8-green-2\/","og_locale":"fr_CA","og_type":"article","og_title":"Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2 - Pallas Data","og_description":"(TORONTO, 24 March 2025) \u2013 The 45th federal election campaign begins with the governing Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points, a Pallas Data poll has found. On March 22nd, Pallas surveyed 1225 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +\/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 42% (+8% from Pallas&#8217; last poll in March), while the Conservatives have 38% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (-4%), while the Greens have 2% (no change). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% (no change), with 30% in Quebec. &#8220;This campaign begins defying every expectation with the Liberals finding themselves in majority territory as the campaign begins,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;Pierre Poilievre &#8211; for the first time in two years &#8211; has to play catch-up.&#8221; The Liberal majority&#8217;s anatomy comes from their strong regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. Regional Breakdown:\u2022 British Columbia: Liberal 42%, Conservative 39%, NDP 9%, Green 7%\u2022 Alberta: Conservative 66%, Liberal 29%, NDP 4%\u2022 Prairies: Conservative 42%, Liberal 35%, NDP 21%\u2022 Ontario: Liberal 48%, Conservative 40%, NDP 8%, PPC 3%\u2022 Quebec: Liberal 40%, Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 30%, Conservative 20%, NDP 6%\u2022 Atlantic: Liberal 48%, Conservative 30%, NDP 16%, Green 4% Demographic Insights:The Liberals show particular strength among seniors (55% among 65+) and women (43%), while Conservatives lead with voters aged 35-49 (45%). The NDP performs best with younger voters (13% among the 18-34 cohort) and in Prairie provinces (21%). &#8220;We&#8217;ve seen this same divide in last year&#8217;s British Columbia elections,&#8221; continued Dr. Angolano. &#8220;The Liberals lead among Canadians over the age of 50 while the Conservatives lead among those younger than 50. The older group seems happy with the status quo while the other wants change.&#8221; Carney Effect Delivers for LiberalsPrime Minister Mark Carney&#8217;s leadership is outperforming Pallas&#8217; hypothetical polling from a month ago, when polling showed the Liberals at 39% with Carney as leader. Conservative Support Remains ResilientDespite falling behind, the Conservative Party maintains strong regional performances with 39% support in British Columbia and 40% in Ontario \u2013 historically strong numbers that would typically signal a competitive position. However, the collapse of NDP support has disproportionately benefited the Liberals. NDP Faces Potential Historic LowAt 8% nationwide, the NDP is facing a potential crisis that could reduce it to just one or two seats\u2014its worst showing since 1993. However, they may experience some rebound during the campaign period. Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois Maintains Strong PositionWith 30% support in Quebec against the Liberals&#8217; 40%, the Bloc begins the campaign well above its historical &#8220;redline&#8221; of 23%, where they would face an electoral blowout similar to 2011. This positions them to potentially maintain most of their current seats despite Liberal gains in Quebec. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 22nd, 2025 among a sample of 1245 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. 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