{"id":1479,"date":"2025-02-05T19:34:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T19:34:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/?p=1479"},"modified":"2025-02-05T20:07:49","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T20:07:49","slug":"pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/02\/05\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Sondage Pallas en Ontario : PC 45, PLC 28, NPD 21, Vert 5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(TORONTO, 5 f\u00e9vrier 2025) \u2013 Les progressistes-conservateurs au pouvoir disposent d'une avance de dix-sept points sur les lib\u00e9raux de l'Ontario, selon un sondage de Pallas Data.<br><br>Dans le cadre d\u2019un sondage publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans le Trillium, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 014 adultes de l\u2019Ontario, \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l\u2019aide de la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR), les 1er et 2 f\u00e9vrier 2025. La marge d&#x27;erreur est de +\/- 3,11 TP3T avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T.<br><br>Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s et ind\u00e9cis, le Parti conservateur dirig\u00e9 par Doug Ford recueille 45% (+4% depuis le dernier sondage Pallas r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en Ontario en octobre). Les lib\u00e9raux de l\u2019Ontario, dirig\u00e9s par Bonnie Crombie, recueillent 28% (aucun changement), tandis que le NPD, dirig\u00e9 par Marit Stiles, recueille 21% (-1%). Les Verts de l\u2019Ontario, avec Mike Schreiner \u00e0 leur t\u00eate, recueillent 5% (-2%).<br><br>\u201c Doug Ford a dit qu'il devait d\u00e9clencher cette \u00e9lection pour obtenir un plus grand mandat, et jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, il semble que son pari soit gagnant \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs l'emporteraient avec une majorit\u00e9 plus importante si l'\u00e9lection avait lieu aujourd'hui.<br><br>Le Parti conservateur devance largement les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD dans toutes les r\u00e9gions de la province. Il devance les lib\u00e9raux de 11% \u00e0 Toronto, de 13% dans la r\u00e9gion du Grand Toronto, et de 9% le NPD dans le centre-sud de l&#x27;Ontario (ou le corridor Hamilton-Niagara).<br><br>\u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs sont suffisamment forts dans toutes les r\u00e9gions au point de devancer les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD pour faire des gains, a poursuivi Angolano. Les progressistes-conservateurs pourraient ravir des si\u00e8ges au NPD dans le corridor Hamilton-Niagara si ces chiffres se maintiennent. \u201d<br><br><strong>Malgr\u00e9 les points n\u00e9gatifs, les intentions de vote pour Ford se maintiennent<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au-del\u00e0 des chiffres relatifs aux intentions de vote, ce sondage fait appara\u00eetre certains \u00e9l\u00e9ments n\u00e9gatifs pour Ford et le Parti conservateur. Plus de la moiti\u00e9 (53%) des Ontariens estiment que la province va dans la mauvaise direction, tandis que seuls 27% pensent qu&#x27;elle va dans la bonne direction.<br><br>Par ailleurs, lorsqu&#x27;on leur a demand\u00e9 quelle \u00e9tait, selon eux, la v\u00e9ritable raison pour laquelle des \u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9es, 60% ont r\u00e9pondu que Ford avait convoqu\u00e9 ces \u00e9lections par int\u00e9r\u00eat politique personnel, tandis que 27% ont estim\u00e9 qu&#x27;il l&#x27;avait fait pour lutter efficacement contre les droits de douane.<br><br>Les \u00e9lecteurs du Parti conservateur (PC) ont un avis contraire \u00e0 celui de la population en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral dans les deux cas. Parmi ce groupe d\u2019Ontariens, 53% estiment que la province va dans la bonne direction, et 57% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que Ford avait d\u00e9clench\u00e9 les \u00e9lections pour lutter efficacement contre les droits de douane.<br><br>\u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs ma\u00eetrisent l\u2019art de satisfaire leur base \u00e9lectorale \u201d, a poursuivi le Dr Angolano. \u201c S\u2019ils sont ravis d\u2019attirer de nouveaux \u00e9lecteurs, les PC de Ford savent que la cl\u00e9 de la r\u00e9\u00e9lection est de garder les \u00e9lecteurs PC de 2022 dans le droit chemin. \u201d<br><br><strong>Les Ontariens sont tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les tarifs douaniers am\u00e9ricains <\/strong><br>Les Ontariens sont tr\u00e8s inquiets au sujet des droits de douane. 43% sont extr\u00eamement inquiets face \u00e0 l&#x27;\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 de ces droits de douane, tandis que 28% se disent assez inquiets. 18% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00eatre un peu inquiets, et 8% ne se sont pas dits inquiets.<br><br>Cela dit, Ford est largement le chef le plus digne de confiance pour repr\u00e9senter les int\u00e9r\u00eats de l'Ontario en mati\u00e8re de tarifs douaniers et de commerce.<br><br>50% des personnes interrog\u00e9es ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que Ford \u00e9tait le meilleur choix, suivi de Bonnie Crombie avec 24%. 19% ont choisi Marit Stiles, et 8% ont opt\u00e9 pour Mike Schreiner.<br><br>\u201c Tant que les Ontariens resteront pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les tarifs douaniers et les relations commerciales de l'Ontario avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, Ford aura un net avantage dans cette \u00e9lection \u201d, a conclu Angolano.<br><br><em>M\u00e9thodologie :<\/em><br>L'analyse de ce rapport est fond\u00e9e sur les r\u00e9sultats d'un sondage men\u00e9 les 1er et 2 f\u00e9vrier 2005 aupr\u00e8s d'un \u00e9chantillon de 1014 adultes, \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant en Ontario et ayant le droit de vote aux \u00e9lections provinciales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 au moyen d'entrevues t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9es utilisant la technologie de r\u00e9ponse vocale interactive (RVI). Les r\u00e9pondants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 interview\u00e9s sur des lignes terrestres et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones cellulaires. L'\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 selon l'\u00e2ge, le genre et la r\u00e9gion d'apr\u00e8s le recensement de 2021. Le sondage vise \u00e0 \u00eatre repr\u00e9sentatif de la population adulte de l'Ontario.<br><br>La marge d&#x27;erreur de ce sondage est de +\/- 3,11 TP3T, avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Les marges d&#x27;erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es dans chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon.<br><br>Il se peut que les totaux ne correspondent pas exactement \u00e0 100% en raison des arrondis.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"embed-pdf-viewer-wrapper aligncenter wp-block-embed-pdf-viewer-pdf\"><iframe class=\"embed-pdf-viewer lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/PallasData-Ontario-Trillium-02February2025-compressed.pdf\" height=\"600\" width=\"600\" title=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(TORONTO, le 5 f\u00e9vrier 2025) \u2013 Selon un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Pallas Data, le Parti conservateur progressiste, actuellement au pouvoir, dispose d\u2019une avance de dix-sept points sur les lib\u00e9raux de l\u2019Ontario. Dans le cadre d&#x27;un sondage publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans le Trillium, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 014 adultes ontariens \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l&#x27;aide de la technologie d&#x27;enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR), les 1er et 2 f\u00e9vrier 2025. La marge d\u2019erreur est de +\/- 3,11 TP3T avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s et ind\u00e9cis, le Parti conservateur progressiste (PC), dirig\u00e9 par Doug Ford, recueille 451 TP3T (+41 TP3T depuis le dernier sondage de Pallas en Ontario en octobre). Les lib\u00e9raux de l\u2019Ontario, dirig\u00e9s par Bonnie Crombie, recueillent 28% (sans changement), tandis que le NPD, dirig\u00e9 par Marit Stiles, recueille 21% (-1%). Les Verts de l\u2019Ontario, avec Mike Schreiner \u00e0 leur t\u00eate, recueillent 51 TP3T (-21 TP3T). \u2019 Doug Ford a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il devait d\u00e9clencher ces \u00e9lections pour obtenir un mandat plus large, et jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, il semble que son pari porte ses fruits \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201d Le Parti conservateur remporterait une majorit\u00e9 encore plus importante si les \u00e9lections avaient lieu aujourd\u2019hui. Le Parti conservateur dispose d\u2019une avance significative sur les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD dans toutes les r\u00e9gions de la province. Il devance les lib\u00e9raux de 11% \u00e0 Toronto, de 13% dans la r\u00e9gion du Grand Toronto, et de 9% face au NPD dans le centre-sud de l\u2019Ontario (ou le corridor Hamilton-Niagara). \u201c Le Parti conservateur est suffisamment fort dans toutes les r\u00e9gions pour emp\u00eacher les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD de gagner du terrain \u201c, a poursuivi M. Angolano. \u201d Le Parti conservateur pourrait remporter des si\u00e8ges au d\u00e9triment du NPD dans le corridor Hamilton-Niagara si ces chiffres se confirment. \u201c Malgr\u00e9 les aspects n\u00e9gatifs, le score de Ford tient toujours Derri\u00e8re les chiffres des intentions de vote, le sondage r\u00e9v\u00e8le toutefois certains aspects n\u00e9gatifs pour Ford et le Parti conservateur. Plus de la moiti\u00e9 (53%) des Ontariens estiment que la province va dans la mauvaise direction, tandis que seuls 27% pensent qu\u2019elle va dans la bonne direction. De plus, lorsqu\u2019on leur a demand\u00e9 quelle \u00e9tait, selon eux, la v\u00e9ritable raison du d\u00e9clenchement anticip\u00e9 des \u00e9lections, 60% ont r\u00e9pondu que Ford avait d\u00e9clench\u00e9 les \u00e9lections par int\u00e9r\u00eat politique personnel, tandis que 27% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il l\u2019avait fait pour lutter efficacement contre les droits de douane. Les \u00e9lecteurs du Parti conservateur ont un avis contraire \u00e0 celui de la population g\u00e9n\u00e9rale dans les deux cas. Au sein de ce groupe d\u2019Ontariens, 53% estiment que la province va dans la bonne direction, et 57% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que Ford avait d\u00e9clench\u00e9 les \u00e9lections pour lutter efficacement contre les droits de douane. \u201d Les conservateurs ont ma\u00eetris\u00e9 l\u2019art de satisfaire leur base \u00e9lectorale \u201c, a poursuivi le Dr Angolano. \u201d Bien qu\u2019ils soient ravis d\u2019attirer de nouveaux \u00e9lecteurs dans leurs rangs, les conservateurs de Ford savent que la cl\u00e9 de leur r\u00e9\u00e9lection r\u00e9side dans la fid\u00e9lisation des \u00e9lecteurs conservateurs de 2022. \u201c Les Ontariens sont tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les droits de douane am\u00e9ricains Les Ontariens sont tr\u00e8s inquiets au sujet des droits de douane. 43% sont extr\u00eamement inquiets face \u00e0 ces \u00e9ventuels droits de douane, tandis que 28% se disent assez inquiets. 18% se disent un peu inquiets, et 8% ne sont pas inquiets. Cela dit, Ford est de loin le dirigeant qui inspire le plus confiance pour d\u00e9fendre les int\u00e9r\u00eats de l\u2019Ontario en mati\u00e8re de droits de douane et de commerce. 50% des personnes interrog\u00e9es ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que Ford \u00e9tait le meilleur choix, suivi de Bonnie Crombie avec 24%. 191 TP3T ont choisi Marit Stiles, et 81 TP3T ont cit\u00e9 Mike Schreiner. \u201d Tant que les Ontariens resteront pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les droits de douane et les relations commerciales de l\u2019Ontario avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, Ford disposera d\u2019un avantage certain lors de cette \u00e9lection \u201c, a conclu Angolano. M\u00e9thodologie : L\u2019analyse pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e dans ce rapport repose sur les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 les 1er et 2 f\u00e9vrier 2005 aupr\u00e8s d\u2019un \u00e9chantillon de 1 014 adultes \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus, r\u00e9sidant en Ontario et habilit\u00e9s \u00e0 voter aux \u00e9lections provinciales. Le sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019entretiens t\u00e9l\u00e9phoniques automatis\u00e9s utilisant la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR). Les personnes interrog\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 contact\u00e9es sur des lignes fixes et des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones portables. L\u2019\u00e9chantillon a \u00e9t\u00e9 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de l\u2019\u00e2ge, du sexe et de la r\u00e9gion, conform\u00e9ment au recensement de 2021. Le sondage vise \u00e0 \u00eatre repr\u00e9sentatif de la population adulte de l\u2019Ontario. La marge d\u2019erreur du sondage est de \u00b1 3,11 TP3T, avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Les marges d\u2019erreur sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es pour chaque sous-\u00e9chantillon. Les totaux peuvent ne pas atteindre 1001 TP3T en raison des arrondis.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polls","category-sondages"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5 - Pallas Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/02\/05\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5 - Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(TORONTO, 5 February 2025) \u2013 The governing Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 1st-2nd, 2025. The margin of error is +\/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 45% (+4% since Pallas\u2019 last Ontario poll in October). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (-2%). &#8220;Doug Ford said he needed to call this election to get a larger mandate, and so far, it looks like his gambit is paying off,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;The PCs would win a more significant majority if the election were held today. The PCs have significant leads over the Liberals and NDP in every region in the province. They lead the Liberals by 11% in Toronto, 13% in the Greater Toronto Area, and by 9% over the NDP in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). &#8220;The PCs are strong enough in every region to the point that they head off the Liberals and the NDP to make gains,&#8221; continued Angolano. &#8220;The PCs would stand to gain seats from the NDP in the Hamilton-Niagara corridor if these numbers hold up.&#8221; Despite the Negatives, Ford&#8217;s Vote Is Still Holding Up Behind the voting intention numbers, the poll does show some negatives for Ford and the PCs. Over half (53%) of Ontarians think the province is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing it is headed in the right direction. Moreover, when asked what Ontarians were the real reason why the election was called early, 60% said that Ford was calling the election early out of political self-interest, with 27% saying that he called the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. PC voters think the opposite of the generation population in both cases. Among this group of Ontarians, 53% believe the province is headed in the right direction, and 57% said Ford was calling the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. &#8220;The PCs have mastered the art of voter base satisfaction,&#8221; continued Dr. Angolano. &#8220;While they are happy to bring new voters into the fold, the Ford PCs know that the key to re-election is to keep 2022 PC voters in the tent.&#8221; Ontarians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs Ontarians are very worried about the tariffs. 43% are extremely worried about the potential tariffs, with 28% saying they are somewhat worried. 18% said they were a little worried, and 8% were not worried. With that said, Ford is overwhelmingly the most trusted leader in representing Ontario&#8217;s interests regarding tariffs and trade. 50% of respondents said Ford was the best option, followed by Bonnie Crombie with 24%. 19% picked Marit Stiles, and 8% said Mike Schreiner. &#8220;So long as Ontarians remain concerned about the tariffs and Ontario&#8217;s trade relationship with the United States, Ford will have a distinct advantage in this election,&#8221; concluded Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 1st-2nd, 2005 among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/02\/05\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-05T19:34:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-05T20:07:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1586\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1075\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pallas Data\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2ba337b9f439fbf5971c35efec1932c1\"},\"headline\":\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-02-05T19:34:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-05T20:07:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":641,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png?fit=1586%2C1075&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Polls\",\"Sondages\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/05\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5 - 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Pallas Data","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2025\/02\/05\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-45-olp-28-ndp-21-green-5-2\/","og_locale":"fr_CA","og_type":"article","og_title":"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5 - Pallas Data","og_description":"(TORONTO, 5 February 2025) \u2013 The governing Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 1st-2nd, 2025. The margin of error is +\/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 45% (+4% since Pallas\u2019 last Ontario poll in October). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (-2%). &#8220;Doug Ford said he needed to call this election to get a larger mandate, and so far, it looks like his gambit is paying off,&#8221; said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;The PCs would win a more significant majority if the election were held today. The PCs have significant leads over the Liberals and NDP in every region in the province. They lead the Liberals by 11% in Toronto, 13% in the Greater Toronto Area, and by 9% over the NDP in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). &#8220;The PCs are strong enough in every region to the point that they head off the Liberals and the NDP to make gains,&#8221; continued Angolano. &#8220;The PCs would stand to gain seats from the NDP in the Hamilton-Niagara corridor if these numbers hold up.&#8221; Despite the Negatives, Ford&#8217;s Vote Is Still Holding Up Behind the voting intention numbers, the poll does show some negatives for Ford and the PCs. Over half (53%) of Ontarians think the province is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing it is headed in the right direction. Moreover, when asked what Ontarians were the real reason why the election was called early, 60% said that Ford was calling the election early out of political self-interest, with 27% saying that he called the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. PC voters think the opposite of the generation population in both cases. Among this group of Ontarians, 53% believe the province is headed in the right direction, and 57% said Ford was calling the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. &#8220;The PCs have mastered the art of voter base satisfaction,&#8221; continued Dr. Angolano. &#8220;While they are happy to bring new voters into the fold, the Ford PCs know that the key to re-election is to keep 2022 PC voters in the tent.&#8221; Ontarians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs Ontarians are very worried about the tariffs. 43% are extremely worried about the potential tariffs, with 28% saying they are somewhat worried. 18% said they were a little worried, and 8% were not worried. With that said, Ford is overwhelmingly the most trusted leader in representing Ontario&#8217;s interests regarding tariffs and trade. 50% of respondents said Ford was the best option, followed by Bonnie Crombie with 24%. 19% picked Marit Stiles, and 8% said Mike Schreiner. &#8220;So long as Ontarians remain concerned about the tariffs and Ontario&#8217;s trade relationship with the United States, Ford will have a distinct advantage in this election,&#8221; concluded Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 1st-2nd, 2005 among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +\/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. 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