{"id":1258,"date":"2024-06-11T19:36:29","date_gmt":"2024-06-11T19:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/?p=1258"},"modified":"2024-08-30T15:01:41","modified_gmt":"2024-08-30T15:01:41","slug":"pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/","title":{"rendered":"Sondage Pallas en Ontario : PC 39, PLO 27, NPD 23, Vert 8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(TORONTO, le 11 juin 2024) \u2013 Les progressistes-conservateurs au pouvoir ont une avance de douze points sur les lib\u00e9raux de l'Ontario, selon un sondage de Pallas Data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le cadre d&#x27;un sondage publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans le Trillium, Pallas a interrog\u00e9, le 4 juin 2024, 1 136 adultes de l&#x27;Ontario \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l&#x27;aide de la technologie d&#x27;enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR). La marge d&#x27;erreur est de +\/- 2,91 TP3T avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s et ind\u00e9cis, le Parti conservateur, dirig\u00e9 par Doug Ford, recueille 39,41 TP3T (+4,91 TP3T depuis le dernier sondage de Pallas en Ontario, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en f\u00e9vrier). Les lib\u00e9raux de l&#x27;Ontario, men\u00e9s par Bonnie Crombie, recueillent 26,51 TP3T (-5,11 TP3T), tandis que le NPD, dirig\u00e9 par Marit Stiles, obtient 22,61 TP3T (+11 TP3T). Les Verts de l&#x27;Ontario, avec Mike Schreiner \u00e0 leur t\u00eate, recueillent 8,31 TP3T (+11 TP3T).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c L'ann\u00e9e 2024 a \u00e9t\u00e9 bonne pour le premier ministre Ford jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs ont une avance confortable sur les lib\u00e9raux et remportent ais\u00e9ment une majorit\u00e9 si une \u00e9lection avait lieu aujourd'hui. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les progressistes-conservateurs de Ford disposent d'une avance consid\u00e9rable dans toutes les r\u00e9gions, y compris dans les zones riches en si\u00e8ges de la r\u00e9gion du Grand Toronto et de Toronto m\u00eame. Les lib\u00e9raux, en revanche, ont une avance de huit points sur les progressistes-conservateurs et le NPD dans le centre-sud de l'Ontario (autrement connu sous le nom de corridor Hamilton-Niagara). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Ces chiffres indiquent que peu de choses ont chang\u00e9 depuis la derni\u00e8re \u00e9lection \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Angolano. \u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs se situent dans la marge d'erreur de leur score de 2022, et les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD sont relativement proches l'un de l'autre. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Une \u00e9lection anticip\u00e9e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sondage a \u00e9galement demand\u00e9 aux Ontariens s'ils seraient plus ou moins susceptibles de voter pour le Parti progressiste-conservateur si des \u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es \u00e9taient d\u00e9clench\u00e9es. Le premier ministre Ford a refus\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises d'\u00e9carter la possibilit\u00e9 d'\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es la semaine derni\u00e8re lorsque les journalistes lui ont pos\u00e9 la question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">31% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;ils seraient moins enclins \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur si des \u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es \u00e9taient organis\u00e9es. 10% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;ils seraient plus enclins \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur, tandis que 52% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la tenue d&#x27;\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es n&#x27;aurait aucune incidence sur leur vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Une \u00e9lection anticip\u00e9e n'aurait aucun impact sur les chances \u00e9lectorales du Parti conservateur \u201d, a ajout\u00e9 le Dr Angolano. \u201c Ce que cela signifierait, c'est que les \u00e9lecteurs qui ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de ne jamais voter pour les progressistes-conservateurs utiliseraient la convocation d'\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es comme une raison suppl\u00e9mentaire de ne pas voter pour eux. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un \u00e9lecteur du Parti conservateur sur quatre a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;il serait plus enclin \u00e0 voter pour ce parti en cas d&#x27;\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es, tandis que seuls 14% ont indiqu\u00e9 qu&#x27;ils seraient moins enclins \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur si les Ontariens devaient se rendre aux urnes plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Les lib\u00e9raux, qui occupent la deuxi\u00e8me place, auraient besoin que chacun de ces 141 \u00e9lecteurs change son vote, en le retirant au Parti conservateur pour le donner aux lib\u00e9raux, afin d\u2019aboutir \u00e0 un gouvernement conservateur minoritaire \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201c Et ce sc\u00e9nario de conversion parfaite des \u00e9lecteurs ne se produira tout simplement pas. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Les PJ vont gagner parce qu'ils peuvent conserver leur base<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sondage a \u00e9galement demand\u00e9 aux Ontariens d'indiquer si des raisons strat\u00e9giques ou sinc\u00e8res expliquent le mieux leur vote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\">22% a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;il voterait pour le PC car c&#x27;est son premier choix (\u00e9lecteurs fid\u00e8les au PC) ; <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">14% a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 avoir des r\u00e9serves concernant les conservateurs, mais voter quand m\u00eame pour eux car ils n&#x27;appr\u00e9cient pas les autres partis (\u00e9lecteurs mod\u00e9r\u00e9s du Parti conservateur) ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">21% a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;il voterait de mani\u00e8re strat\u00e9gique pour n&#x27;importe quel autre parti, dans le seul but d&#x27;emp\u00eacher les conservateurs de remporter \u00e0 nouveau les \u00e9lections (\u00e9lecteurs de l&#x27;opposition strat\u00e9gique),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Les personnes class\u00e9es dans la cat\u00e9gorie 31% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;elles voteraient pour les autres partis, car ceux-ci constituent leur premier choix (\u00e9lecteurs farouchement oppos\u00e9s).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs ont suffisamment d'\u00e9lecteurs, tant parmi les \u00e9lecteurs fid\u00e8les que mod\u00e9r\u00e9s, pour remporter une \u00e9lection, malgr\u00e9 un bassin d'\u00e9lecteurs plus important pour les partis d'opposition que pour les progressistes-conservateurs \u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c La mauvaise nouvelle pour le NPD et les lib\u00e9raux, c'est que les \u00e9lecteurs mod\u00e9r\u00e9s du PC sont favorables \u00e0 la convocation d'\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es et satisfaits de la performance g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du gouvernement Ford \u201d, a poursuivi Angolano. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lorsqu&#x27;on leur a demand\u00e9 s&#x27;ils estimaient que le gouvernement Ford faisait du bon ou du mauvais travail jusqu&#x27;\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent en 2024, 41% d&#x27;Ontariens ont r\u00e9pondu qu&#x27;il faisait un tr\u00e8s mauvais travail, 15% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#x27;il faisait un travail plut\u00f4t mauvais, 12% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il ne faisait ni un bon ni un mauvais travail, 16% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il faisait un travail plut\u00f4t bon, tandis que 13% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il faisait un tr\u00e8s bon travail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Il semble absurde que les Ontariens expriment leur m\u00e9contentement envers Ford tout en \u00e9tant susceptibles de lui offrir une r\u00e9\u00e9lection facile, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano. Mais la simple v\u00e9rit\u00e9 est que les progressistes-conservateurs sont satisfaits de la gestion du parti en 2024. \u2018<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c Les progressistes-conservateurs comprennent qu\u2019ils ne peuvent pas et ne veulent pas plaire \u00e0 tout le monde, a conclu Angolano. Mais ils peuvent s'efforcer de garder leurs \u00e9lecteurs heureux et de leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, ce qui explique pourquoi ils sont en route vers une r\u00e9\u00e9lection facile. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"embed-pdf-viewer-wrapper aligncenter wp-block-embed-pdf-viewer-pdf wp-block-embed-pdf-viewer-pdf__content-wrapper\"><iframe class=\"embed-pdf-viewer lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Ontario-Trillium-06June2024.pdf\" height=\"600\" width=\"600\" title=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(TORONTO, le 11 juin 2024) \u2013 Selon un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Pallas Data, les conservateurs progressistes au pouvoir disposent d&#x27;une avance de douze points sur les lib\u00e9raux de l&#x27;Ontario. Dans le cadre d\u2019un sondage publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans le Trillium, Pallas a interrog\u00e9 1 136 adultes ontariens \u00e2g\u00e9s de 18 ans ou plus et ayant le droit de vote, \u00e0 l\u2019aide de la technologie d\u2019enregistrement vocal interactif (IVR), le 4 juin 2024. La marge d\u2019erreur est de +\/- 2,91 TP3T avec un niveau de confiance de 951 TP3T. Parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9cid\u00e9s ou ayant une pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence, le Parti conservateur progressiste, dirig\u00e9 par Doug Ford, recueille 39,41 TP3T (+4,91 TP3T depuis le dernier sondage de Pallas en Ontario, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en f\u00e9vrier). Les lib\u00e9raux de l\u2019Ontario, dirig\u00e9s par Bonnie Crombie, recueillent 26,51 TP3T (-5,11 TP3T), tandis que le NPD, dirig\u00e9 par Marit Stiles, recueille 22,61 TP3T (+11 TP3T). Les Verts de l\u2019Ontario, avec Mike Schreiner \u00e0 leur t\u00eate, recueillent 8,31 TP3T (+11 TP3T). \u2019 L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 s\u2019annonce bien pour le premier ministre Ford jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. \u201d Les conservateurs disposent d\u2019une confortable avance sur les lib\u00e9raux et remporteraient sans difficult\u00e9 la majorit\u00e9 si des \u00e9lections avaient lieu aujourd\u2019hui. \u201c Le Parti conservateur de Ford dispose d\u2019avances significatives dans toutes les r\u00e9gions, y compris dans les zones riches en si\u00e8ges que sont la r\u00e9gion du Grand Toronto et la ville de Toronto proprement dite. Les lib\u00e9raux, en revanche, ont huit points d\u2019avance sur les conservateurs et le NPD dans le centre-sud de l\u2019Ontario (\u00e9galement connu sous le nom de corridor Hamilton-Niagara). \u201d Ces chiffres indiquent que peu de choses ont chang\u00e9 depuis les derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Angolano. \u201d Les r\u00e9sultats du Parti conservateur se situent dans la marge d\u2019erreur par rapport \u00e0 ceux de 2022, tandis que les lib\u00e9raux et le NPD sont relativement proches les uns des autres. \u201c Des \u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es Le sondage a \u00e9galement demand\u00e9 aux Ontariens s\u2019ils seraient plus ou moins enclins \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur en cas de d\u00e9clenchement d\u2019\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es. Le premier ministre Ford a refus\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises, au cours de la semaine derni\u00e8re, d\u2019exclure la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un d\u00e9clenchement d\u2019\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es lorsque les journalistes lui ont pos\u00e9 la question. 31% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019ils seraient moins enclins \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur si des \u00e9lections \u00e9taient organis\u00e9es plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu. 101 % des personnes interrog\u00e9es ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019elles seraient plus enclines \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur, tandis que 521 % ont indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019une \u00e9lection anticip\u00e9e n\u2019aurait aucune incidence sur leur vote. \u201d Des \u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es n\u2019auraient pas d\u2019incidence sur les chances \u00e9lectorales du Parti conservateur \u201c, a ajout\u00e9 le Dr Angolano. \u201d Cela signifierait simplement que les \u00e9lecteurs qui ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de ne jamais voter pour le Parti conservateur utiliseraient la tenue d\u2019\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es comme une raison suppl\u00e9mentaire de ne pas voter pour lui. \u201c Un \u00e9lecteur conservateur sur quatre a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il serait plus enclin \u00e0 voter pour le Parti conservateur en cas d\u2019\u00e9lection anticip\u00e9e, tandis que seuls 14% ont indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019ils seraient moins enclins \u00e0 voter pour ce parti si les Ontariens se rendaient aux urnes plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu. \u201d Les lib\u00e9raux, qui occupent la deuxi\u00e8me place, auraient besoin que chacun de ces 14% transf\u00e8re son vote du Parti conservateur vers eux pour parvenir \u00e0 une minorit\u00e9 conservatrice \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201d Et ce sc\u00e9nario de conversion parfaite des \u00e9lecteurs ne se produira tout simplement pas. \u201c Le Parti conservateur l\u2019emportera car il peut conserver sa base L\u2019enqu\u00eate a \u00e9galement demand\u00e9 aux Ontariens d\u2019indiquer si leur vote s\u2019expliquait davantage par des raisons strat\u00e9giques ou sinc\u00e8res. \u201d Le Parti conservateur dispose d\u2019un nombre suffisant d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs, tant parmi les partisans fermes que parmi les partisans mod\u00e9r\u00e9s, pour remporter une \u00e9lection, m\u00eame si le vivier d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs est plus important pour les partis d\u2019opposition que pour le Parti conservateur \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 M. Angolano. \u201d La mauvaise nouvelle pour le NPD et les lib\u00e9raux, c\u2019est que les \u00e9lecteurs mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment favorables au Parti conservateur n\u2019ont rien contre la convocation d\u2019\u00e9lections anticip\u00e9es ni contre la performance globale du gouvernement Ford \u201c, a poursuivi M. Angolano. Lorsqu\u2019on leur a demand\u00e9 s\u2019ils estimaient que le gouvernement Ford faisait du bon ou du mauvais travail jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent en 2024, 41% d\u2019Ontariens ont r\u00e9pondu qu\u2019il faisait un tr\u00e8s mauvais travail, 15% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il faisait un travail plut\u00f4t mauvais, 12% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il ne faisait ni un bon ni un mauvais travail, 16% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il faisait un travail plut\u00f4t bon, tandis que 13% ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il faisait un tr\u00e8s bon travail. \u201d Il semble paradoxal que les Ontariens donnent une note tr\u00e8s n\u00e9gative \u00e0 Ford alors que celui-ci devrait facilement remporter un nouveau mandat \u201c, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Angolano. \u2018 Mais la v\u00e9rit\u00e9, c\u2019est que les conservateurs sont satisfaits de leurs r\u00e9sultats en 2024. \u2019 \u201d Les conservateurs comprennent qu\u2019ils ne peuvent pas et ne veulent pas satisfaire tout le monde \u201c, a conclu M. Angolano. \u201d Mais ils peuvent s\u2019attacher \u00e0 satisfaire leurs \u00e9lecteurs et \u00e0 les garder de leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, ce qui explique pourquoi ils sont en passe d\u2019\u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lus sans difficult\u00e9. \u201c<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polls","category-sondages"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8 - Pallas Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8 - Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(TORONTO, 11 June 2024) &#8211; The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1136 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 4th, 2024. The margin of error is +\/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 39.4% (+4.9% since Pallas\u2019 last Ontario poll in February). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 26.5% (-5.1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22.6% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 8.3% (+1%). &#8220;It has been a good 2024 for Premier Ford so far&#8221;, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;The PCs have a comfortable lead over the Liberals and would comfortably win a majority of an election were held today.&#8221; The Ford PCs have significant leads in every region, including the seat-rich areas of the Greater Toronto Area and Toronto proper. The Liberals, on the other hand, have an eight-point lead over the PCs and the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). &#8220;These numbers indicate that little has changed since the last election,&#8221; said Dr. Angolano. &#8220;The PCs are within the margin of error of what they got in 2022, and the Liberals and the NDP are relatively close to each other.&#8221; An Early Election The survey also asked Ontarians whether they would be more or less likely to vote PC if an early election were called. Premier Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election call over the last week when reporters have asked. 31% said they would be less likely to vote PC if an election were called early. 10% said they would be more likely to vote PC, while 52% said an early election call would not impact their vote. &#8220;An early election would not impact the PC&#8217;s electoral chances,&#8221; added Dr. Angolano. &#8220;What it would mean is that those voters that have already decided that they would never vote for the PCs would use an early election call as another reason not to vote for them.&#8221; One in four PC voters said they would be more likely to vote PC if there were an early election, with only 14% saying they would be less likely to vote PC if Ontarians headed to the polls early. &#8220;The Liberals, who are in second place, would need every one of those 14% to switch their votes from the PCs to them to get to a PC minority,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;And that scenario of perfect voter conversion is simply not going to happen.&#8221; The PCs Will Win Because They Can Retain Their Base The survey also asked Ontarians to identify whether strategic or sincere reasons best explain their vote. &#8220;The PCs have enough voters among both hard and soft PC voters to win an election despite the voter pool is larger for the opposition parties than it is for the PCs,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;The bad news for the NDP and the Liberals is that the soft PC voters are fine with an early election call and the general performance of the Ford government,&#8221; Angolano continued. When asked about whether they thought the Ford government was doing a good or bad job so far in 2024, 41% of Ontarians said that they were doing a very bad job, 15% said they were doing a somewhat bad job, 12% said they were doing neither a good or bad job, 16% said they were doing a somewhat good job, while 13% said they were doing a very good job. &#8220;It seems confusing that Ontarians are giving a big &#8216;thumbs down&#8217; to Ford but likely winning re-election easily,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;But the plain truth is that PCs are satisfied with how the PCs are doing in 2024.&#8221; &#8220;The PCs understand that they can&#8217;t and won&#8217;t be all things to all people,&#8221; concluded Angolano. &#8220;But they can focus on keeping their voters happy and onside, which is why they&#8217;re on a path to an easy re-election.&#8221;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-11T19:36:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-30T15:01:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1586\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1075\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Pallas Data\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pallas Data\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2ba337b9f439fbf5971c35efec1932c1\"},\"headline\":\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-11T19:36:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-30T15:01:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":763,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png?fit=1586%2C1075&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Polls\",\"Sondages\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pallas-data.ca\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/11\\\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8 - 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Pallas Data","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/","og_locale":"fr_CA","og_type":"article","og_title":"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8 - Pallas Data","og_description":"(TORONTO, 11 June 2024) &#8211; The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1136 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 4th, 2024. The margin of error is +\/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 39.4% (+4.9% since Pallas\u2019 last Ontario poll in February). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 26.5% (-5.1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22.6% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 8.3% (+1%). &#8220;It has been a good 2024 for Premier Ford so far&#8221;, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. &#8220;The PCs have a comfortable lead over the Liberals and would comfortably win a majority of an election were held today.&#8221; The Ford PCs have significant leads in every region, including the seat-rich areas of the Greater Toronto Area and Toronto proper. The Liberals, on the other hand, have an eight-point lead over the PCs and the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). &#8220;These numbers indicate that little has changed since the last election,&#8221; said Dr. Angolano. &#8220;The PCs are within the margin of error of what they got in 2022, and the Liberals and the NDP are relatively close to each other.&#8221; An Early Election The survey also asked Ontarians whether they would be more or less likely to vote PC if an early election were called. Premier Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election call over the last week when reporters have asked. 31% said they would be less likely to vote PC if an election were called early. 10% said they would be more likely to vote PC, while 52% said an early election call would not impact their vote. &#8220;An early election would not impact the PC&#8217;s electoral chances,&#8221; added Dr. Angolano. &#8220;What it would mean is that those voters that have already decided that they would never vote for the PCs would use an early election call as another reason not to vote for them.&#8221; One in four PC voters said they would be more likely to vote PC if there were an early election, with only 14% saying they would be less likely to vote PC if Ontarians headed to the polls early. &#8220;The Liberals, who are in second place, would need every one of those 14% to switch their votes from the PCs to them to get to a PC minority,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;And that scenario of perfect voter conversion is simply not going to happen.&#8221; The PCs Will Win Because They Can Retain Their Base The survey also asked Ontarians to identify whether strategic or sincere reasons best explain their vote. &#8220;The PCs have enough voters among both hard and soft PC voters to win an election despite the voter pool is larger for the opposition parties than it is for the PCs,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;The bad news for the NDP and the Liberals is that the soft PC voters are fine with an early election call and the general performance of the Ford government,&#8221; Angolano continued. When asked about whether they thought the Ford government was doing a good or bad job so far in 2024, 41% of Ontarians said that they were doing a very bad job, 15% said they were doing a somewhat bad job, 12% said they were doing neither a good or bad job, 16% said they were doing a somewhat good job, while 13% said they were doing a very good job. &#8220;It seems confusing that Ontarians are giving a big &#8216;thumbs down&#8217; to Ford but likely winning re-election easily,&#8221; said Angolano. &#8220;But the plain truth is that PCs are satisfied with how the PCs are doing in 2024.&#8221; &#8220;The PCs understand that they can&#8217;t and won&#8217;t be all things to all people,&#8221; concluded Angolano. &#8220;But they can focus on keeping their voters happy and onside, which is why they&#8217;re on a path to an easy re-election.&#8221;","og_url":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/fr\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/","og_site_name":"Pallas Data","article_published_time":"2024-06-11T19:36:29+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-08-30T15:01:41+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1586,"height":1075,"url":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Pallas Data","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Pallas Data","Estimation du temps de lecture":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/"},"author":{"name":"Pallas Data","@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/#\/schema\/person\/2ba337b9f439fbf5971c35efec1932c1"},"headline":"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8","datePublished":"2024-06-11T19:36:29+00:00","dateModified":"2024-08-30T15:01:41+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/"},"wordCount":763,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/pallas-data.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Pallas-Ontario-Poll.png?fit=1586%2C1075&ssl=1","articleSection":["Polls","Sondages"],"inLanguage":"fr-CA"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/","url":"https:\/\/pallas-data.ca\/2024\/06\/11\/pallas-ontario-poll-pc-39-olp-27-ndp-23-green-8\/","name":"Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8 - 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