Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 30, PLQ 23, CAQ 19, PCQ 17, QS 10
(TORONTO, September 28, 2026) – The Parti Québécois enters the final week of Quebec’s election with a seven-point lead, and the CAQ has slipped to third behind the Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fifth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 25-26 among 1,192 adults, shows the CAQ down four points in a week, with the Conservatives now within a point. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 30% (+2% since last week). The Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard follows at 23% (+1%), then the CAQ under Christine Fréchette at 19% (-3%). The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime is at 17% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 10% (-1%). The CAQ and Liberals had been level for two straight weeks. Milliard’s party is now four points clear. “A three-point drop in a week for the CAQ opens the door for the PQ to secure a win next week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PQ will form the next government. The only question is whether it will be a majority or a minority.” Montreal The PQ retook the lead in Montreal’s suburbs a week ago after the Liberals had briefly led there, and this week it pulled further ahead: 35% (+4%), against 21% for the Liberals (-2%) and 20% for the CAQ (-4%). Milliard’s real strength is downtown. The Liberals hold 46% on the Island of Montreal (+10%) and 53% among non-francophone voters (+2%). Quebec City and the regions The PCQ has topped the Quebec City region for four straight waves and sits at 33% this week (+2%). The CAQ and PQ are tied behind it at 24%, with the PQ down five points from last week. Outside the Montreal and Quebec City regions, the PCQ runs second at 25%, behind the PQ’s 33% and ahead of the CAQ’s 19%. “It looks as though Eric Duhaime and the Conservatives will accomplish their goal of winning seats in the National Assembly,” said Angolano. “Their goal now is to win 12 seats and gain official party status, and it looks like they might be on course to accomplish that.” Voters 65 and older The CAQ led among voters 65 and older through most of the campaign. That lead was gone last week, and it hasn’t returned. The PQ has 31% with this group (+1%), the CAQ 28% (-1%), and the Liberals 26%. “Older voters are the most dependable voters in Quebec, and the CAQ can’t count on them anymore,” Angolano said. “That was supposed to be its cushion, and now those voters have either flocked to the PQ or the Liberals.” Leader ratings and best premier Plamondon’s net favourability rose from -13% to -1%, the biggest move of the five leaders. Ghazal went from -2% to +3%, Duhaime from -30% to -25%, and Fréchette from -35% to -33%. Milliard slipped from -7% to -13%. On best premier, Plamondon leads at 32% (+3%). Fréchette moves up to second at 18% (+2%), ahead of Milliard at 17% (-2%). Duhaime is at 14% (+1%), and Ghazal is at 8% (-5%). “Plamondon is 14 points clear of the next leader on best premier with a week left,” Angolano said. “Nobody else in this race has the time to close that.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,192 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 25-26, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is ±2.8%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.