Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 22, PCQ 16, QS 9
(TORONTO, 30 August 2026) – Quebec’s election campaign has opened with the Parti Québécois still in front, but the real story is behind Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The Coalition avenir Québec has climbed back into second place, and the Quebec Liberal Party has lost a third of the support it held in May, according to a new Pallas Data poll. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 29% (no change since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in May), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 24% (+5%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has 22% (-6%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime has 16% (+2%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 9% (+1%). “The Quebec election has started, and the CAQ is finding new signs of life as the Trump tariff threats begin to take hold,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Regional and language breakdown The CAQ’s recovery is concentrated in the suburbs and the regions. In Montreal’s suburbs, the CAQ pulls 29%, nearly even with the PQ’s 28% and well ahead of the PLQ’s 17%. Outside Montreal and Quebec City, the CAQ sits at 23%, again running close to the PQ. On the Island of Montreal, still the Liberals’ strongest ground, the CAQ remains a distant fourth at 9%. The PCQ’s best result is in Quebec City, where Duhaime leads outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 25% and the CAQ’s 22%. The PLQ falls to single digits there, at 8%. The PCQ also shows the widest gender gap of any party. Among men, Duhaime’s party draws 22% of the vote. Among women, it draws 8%. Age splits the electorate along familiar lines. Voters 65 and older back the CAQ at 34%, ahead of the PQ at 31%. Voters 18 to 34 favour the PQ at 29%, with QS drawing its strongest result in any age group at 17%, compared with just 2% among seniors. “The same dynamic that saved the federal Liberals last year might be developing here in Quebec.” Best party leader for the tariff crisis Asked which party leader would be best placed to guide Quebec through the crisis over American tariffs, 32% named Fréchette, 23% named Plamondon, 13% named Milliard, 13% named Duhaime, and 6% named Ghazal. Twelve percent didn’t know. Fréchette’s number runs well ahead of her party’s vote share, and her crossover appeal is the strongest of any leader tested. Ninety-six percent of CAQ voters pick her, but so do 15% of PLQ voters and 11% of QS voters. Plamondon holds 76% of his own PQ voters on this question but draws less support from outside his coalition. Milliard’s position is weaker: only 61% of his own PLQ voters name him, with the rest split between undecided and the other leaders. “This isn’t quite Elbows Up 2.0. Quebec voters trust Fréchette the most to lead through the tariff crisis, and that trust is spilling over into stronger CAQ support among voters over 50.” Seat outlook Pallas doesn’t do seat projections, but the regional pattern points to a fractured National Assembly if the numbers hold. “If the election were held today, this would be a PQ minority government, and one of the most fractured National Assemblies in Quebec’s history. The Liberals would still pick up some seats, the Conservatives would establish a beachhead in the Quebec City region, and the CAQ would be saved from oblivion.” Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,108 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on August 29, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.