Pallas Toronto Poll: Chow 50, Bradford 39, Alexander 8
(TORONTO, August 24, 2026) – Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 38% to 30% in the race for Toronto mayor, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the gap widens to 50% versus 39%. The survey was conducted August 19–21 among 808 Toronto voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Chow’s lead comes with a catch. 46% of Torontonians say the city is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 37% who say it is going in the right direction. Forty-eight percent are dissatisfied with Chow’s own performance as mayor, versus 37% satisfied. “What this tells us is that being disliked isn’t enough for an incumbent to lose,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Bradford needs to build a bridge of credibility with Toronto voters where they feel comfortable enough to hand him the keys to the Mayor’s Office. This hasn’t happened yet.” An Underwater Mayor, Still Out Front Chow’s approval numbers look more like those of an incumbent bracing for a fight than of one coasting to re-election. With that said, City Council approvals fare worse than hers: 53% are dissatisfied, 19% are satisfied. With that said, there are fewer Torontonians saying that the city is going in the wrong direction compared to March, when 49% of Torontonians said the city was on the wrong track. Torontonians aren’t optimistic about the two issues that matter most, either. Sixty-six percent say the city isn’t doing enough on affordability. Sixty-four percent say the same on housing specifically. On the fix, the electorate is split.35% want more supply, 39% want renter protections and expanded social housing, and a quarter aren’t sure. “What the Toronto mayoral election is showing us so far is that you can be underwater on these files and still be ahead, provided that voters don’t trust your opponents,” Angolano said. “That’s where Chow sits right now.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted August 19th-21st, 2026 among a sample of 808 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.