Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6
Majority oppose Bill 5 despite PC lead (TORONTO, 30 June 2025) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a fourteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, despite majority opposition to the government’s controversial “Special Economic Zones” legislation, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1,080 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 28th-29th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 43% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 29% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (unchanged). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 6% (-1%).” The Ford government continues to be in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, a PC majority with the NDP in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in most regions of the province, most notably Northern Ontario (56%) and Southwestern Ontario (49%). Toronto is more competitive, where the Liberals trail the PCs by just seven points (35% to 28%), with the NDP close behind at 26%. Bill 5 Opposition Doesn’t Translate to Electoral Damage The survey asked respondents about their views on Ontario’s Bill 5, the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act, which allows the government to establish “Special Economic Zones” and waive provincial and local laws within them. A total of 58% said they opposed the legislation (35% strongly opposed, 23% somewhat opposed), while 22% said they supported it. Opposition is strongest among supporters of the opposition parties, but there is also significant opposition from PC voters themselves (34% of PC voters opposed the bill, while 41% supported it). “They understand what their base wants,” said Angolano. “These are the same people who have PC in the last three elections, and the Ford government knows how to keep them happy.” “Conversely, voters who are unhappy with the bill likely have been unhappy with Ford for three election cycles now, so it is unlikely he is alienating a new subset of voters with Bill 5.” The poll also tested the federal government’s similar Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act. Support was higher for the federal legislation, with 31% in favour and 46% opposed. Project Delays: Government Gets the Blame When asked what factor delays projects the most in Ontario, 40% of respondents blamed the government itself, while 25% cited environmental rules and regulations, and 19% pointed to the requirements for Indigenous consultation. About one-third of respondents (33%) agreed that large projects, such as mines and highways, take too long to be approved in Ontario, while 39% disagreed with this statement. Room for Opinion Change Despite current opposition, the poll suggests public opinion on the legislation could shift. When asked to describe their overall view of both bills, 35% of respondents said the measures “could be useful tools, but only if they are used responsibly by the federal and provincial governments.” Only 12% said the laws were “necessary tools that can boost the economy right now,” while 14% said they were “necessary tools to help make Ontario and Canada more competitive against the United States.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on June 28th-29th, 2025 among a sample of 1,080 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.