Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 20, Green 5
(TORONTO, 20 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 953 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 18th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (no change since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 20% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “Everything is completely static in this Ontario election and the campaign has done very little to create any sort of dynamic in this election,’ said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Progressive Conservatives are in cruise control to winning their third straight majority next week.” “The one point of interest is who will form the Official Opposition: the Liberals or the NDP.” The PCs maintain their strong leads in every region in Ontario. Their lead over the Liberals in Toronto is eight points, and their lead in the Greater Toronto Area is twelve. In South Central Ontario, the PCs lead the NDP by eight points. More Ontarians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction 57% of Ontarians think the province is headed in the wrong direction. 23% think Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 20% said they were unsure. “The number of Ontarians who said that the province is going in the wrong direction has been up four percent since the beginning of the election,” said Angolano. “So while support remains steady for the PCs, dissatisfaction for how the province is doing is up slightly.” Ford Seen As The Debate Winner25% of respondents said that PC leader Doug Ford won the leaders’ debate, while 19% said that Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie won. 8% said NDP leader Marit Stiles won, with 4% saying Green leader Mike Schreiner won. 13% said no leader won the debate, and 30% said they didn’t know. Among those who said that they watched the entire debate, 37% said that Ford won compared to 22% who felt Crombie won. 16% of those who said they watched the debate in full said Stiles won. “This finding points to an advantage for the PCs that we might see play out on election day,” observed Angolano. “Watching the leaders’ debate is a sign of civic engagement and willingness to participate in the democratic process. These people are likelier to vote on election day than the rest of the population.’ “If more people in this group think that Ford won the debate compared to the rest of the population, then this is a big advantage for the PCs next week.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 18th, 2025 among a sample of 953 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.