Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5
(TORONTO, 5 February 2025) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 1st-2nd, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 45% (+4% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in October). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (-2%). “Doug Ford said he needed to call this election to get a larger mandate, and so far, it looks like his gambit is paying off,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs would win a more significant majority if the election were held today. The PCs have significant leads over the Liberals and NDP in every region in the province. They lead the Liberals by 11% in Toronto, 13% in the Greater Toronto Area, and by 9% over the NDP in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). “The PCs are strong enough in every region to the point that they head off the Liberals and the NDP to make gains,” continued Angolano. “The PCs would stand to gain seats from the NDP in the Hamilton-Niagara corridor if these numbers hold up.” Despite the Negatives, Ford’s Vote Is Still Holding Up Behind the voting intention numbers, the poll does show some negatives for Ford and the PCs. Over half (53%) of Ontarians think the province is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing it is headed in the right direction. Moreover, when asked what Ontarians were the real reason why the election was called early, 60% said that Ford was calling the election early out of political self-interest, with 27% saying that he called the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. PC voters think the opposite of the generation population in both cases. Among this group of Ontarians, 53% believe the province is headed in the right direction, and 57% said Ford was calling the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. “The PCs have mastered the art of voter base satisfaction,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While they are happy to bring new voters into the fold, the Ford PCs know that the key to re-election is to keep 2022 PC voters in the tent.” Ontarians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs Ontarians are very worried about the tariffs. 43% are extremely worried about the potential tariffs, with 28% saying they are somewhat worried. 18% said they were a little worried, and 8% were not worried. With that said, Ford is overwhelmingly the most trusted leader in representing Ontario’s interests regarding tariffs and trade. 50% of respondents said Ford was the best option, followed by Bonnie Crombie with 24%. 19% picked Marit Stiles, and 8% said Mike Schreiner. “So long as Ontarians remain concerned about the tariffs and Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States, Ford will have a distinct advantage in this election,” concluded Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 1st-2nd, 2005 among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.