Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 42, LPC 25, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Green 4
(TORONTO, 7 January 2025) – The federal Conservatives maintain a substantial lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1328 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 42% support, while the Liberals, who now find themselves without a leader with Justin Trudeau announcing yesterday he will resign, have 25%. The NDP has 18%, while the Greens have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois has 9%, with 37% in Quebec. “There is life for the Liberals as they enter their post-Trudeau phase,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Things were looking bad for the Liberals at the end of 2024 with them facing the prospects of being reduced to 15 to 20 seats.” “Now, with Justin Trudeau saying that he will resign, the gap between the Liberals has narrowed a bit, and while the Conservatives would still win a majority with these numbers, I would expect the Liberals to form the Official Opposition if an election were held today.” The Conservatives maintain significant leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are ten points behind the Bloc Quebecois. However, the Liberals have closed in on the Conservatives in British Columbia. “The internal goal that the Liberals set back in April of closing the gap between the Conservatives by five points has been accomplished: it only took Justin Trudeau resigning to get it done,” continued Dr. Angolano. “One has to wonder why he didn’t go sooner, seeing how much Liberal fortunes have improved.” Canadians Approve Of Trudeau Resigning The survey also found that most Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation. Just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. By comparison, only a total of 27% don’t think the Liberals will do better in the next election. Almost 60% said they were satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation, with 40% saying they were very satisfied. “Canadians likely are not going to agree about Justin Trudeau’s legacy,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But they agree that the Trudeau era had run its course, for better or worse.” When asked about the Liberal’s chances in the next election without Trudeau as their leader, just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. However, almost one in two Canadians said that yesterday’s news would not affect their vote. 23% said that they are less likely to vote Liberal now. 48% said their vote would not be affected, and 20% said they were more likely to vote Liberal. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1328 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.