Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 41, OLP 28, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 23 October 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 996 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 15th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 41% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in June). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7% (-1%). “The Ford government is still in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. ” If an election were held today, a PC majority with the Liberals in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in every region of the province, most notably the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. Toronto is a little more competitive, where the Liberals are three points behind the PCs, with the NDP in third place at 24%. The Proposed 401 Tunnelled Express Way: A Possible Banana Peel For Ford? The survey asked respondents whether they would support building a tunnelled expressway under the 401. Premier Ford has said that a feasibility study will examine the possibility of building a tunnel underneath Canada’s busiest highway to add more lanes and relieve congestion. A total of 63% said that they opposed the building of the tunnel (52% said that they were strongly opposed), while 18% said that they were in favour of it. Opposition is based chiefly among supporters of the opposition parties. Still, there is also significant opposition from PC voters (a total of 40% of PC voters said they were opposed, while 34% said they supported the idea). A total of 28% said they were more likely to support building a tunnel underneath the 401 if it included a transit line, including 36% of respondents in Toronto, and 32% of respondents living in the Greater Toronto Area. More worryingly for the PCs, 39% of respondents said they would certainly vote against a party that promises to build the 401 tunnel, with 16% of PC voters saying that they would do so. “This should give the Ford government some pause and think about their messaging on the tunnel to Ontarians,” said Angolano. “It is highly unlikely that every PC voter who said they would not vote for a party that would build a tunnel would go out and vote for another party in the next election.” “But there are concerns with the proposed project. Commuters and Toronto drivers see all the congestion due to construction and are likely worried they might see something similar happen with the 401.” Little Concern About an Early Election The survey also asked respondents about their thoughts on the possibility of an early election, as there is speculation that one could be held in the Spring of 2025. 29% said they don’t want an early election, while 20% said they favour one. 31% said that they would be in favour of an early election if there were a good reason to have one, while 19% said that they didn’t care when the election was called. “Usually, when we ask questions about an early election, respondents tend to disapprove of an early election strongly,” said Angolano. “The fact that there isn’t much opposition to an early election means that Premier Ford can call one without fear of public backlash.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 15th, 2024 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.