Canadians have been watching with differing levels of concern, from confusion to outright horror, the attacks on Israel by Hamas that left over 1500 Israelis dead, as well as the bombings of the Gaza Strip by the Israel Defence Force.
Last week, we released some findings about what Canadians think about the role the federal government should play in the armed conflict between Hamas and Israel, along with some questions about what kind of role Canada should play overseas and testing approval for Canada’s support for Ukraine against Russia.
What we learned is that Canadians are marginally opposed to seeing the federal government support Israel in its current armed conflict with Hamas. 30% said they strongly disagree with the idea that Canada should support Israel, with 11% saying they somewhat agree (a total of 41%). In contrast, 19% said that they strongly agree, with a further 19% saying they somewhat agree (a total of 38%). 15% said they neither agreed or disagreed, and 5% said they were unsure.
What is interesting is how many respondents strongly disagree with supporting Israel compared to those who strongly agree with the idea.
Even more remarkable is how divided Canadians are in this question regarding geography, age, and political affiliation.
Support for Israel increases with age. 48% of respondents between the ages of 18 to 24 are opposed to Canada’s support for Israel, compared to only 29% of respondents over 65. Just under half of respondents (48%) said that they agreed with Canada’s support for Hamas.
Region is another demographic where we see division on this issue. Support for Israel is evenly split in English Canada, but we see how Quebec is completely opposed to seeing Canada support Israel against Hamas. 52% say they disagree with seeing Canada support Hamas (with 39% saying that they strongly disagree), with only 27% agreeing.
Other studies have shown Quebec’s greater ambivalence towards Jews compared to the rest of the country (although it should be said that the same study indicated similar levels of ambivalence towards Muslims in Quebec), so seeing lower levels of support for Israel against Hamas is not a surprise.
Political party support is another cleavage where we see a divide on this issue. Interestingly enough, Liberal Party supporters are the most likely to agree with Canada’s support for Israel (31% total disagree, 46% total agree). This is not a surprise given that the Liberal Party is the governing party right now, so Liberal Party supporters are more likely to support this policy right now as it is their party that took the decision to support Israel.
Supporters of left-of-centre parties vehemently disagree with Canada’s support for Israel against Hamas. Worrying for Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles and her decision to expel MPP Sarah Jama from caucus, 54% said they disagree compared to 22% that agree with Canada supporting Israel. This suggests that perhaps Jama might be on the right side of opinion among NDP supporters, at least.
Green supporters show similar levels of opposition. 53% said that Canada should not support Israel against Hamas, with 32% saying they agree with Canada supporting Israel.
Interestingly enough, Conservative voters are less likely to support Canadian involvement than Liberal voters. On the surface, this might seem counter-intuitive given how Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper spent a lot of time courting the Jewish vote throughout his tenure as leader.
Isolationism: A Partial Explanation
As we can see, most Canadians prefer that our country take an internationalist role in our foreign affairs. 60% think that Canada should be active in global affairs, with 35% thinking that Canada should pay less attention to problems overseas.
Here, we get some overlap. Respondents in the 18-34 age cohort and Conservative voters are also far more isolationist than the other demographic groups. As with support for Israel, there is a straight monotonic increase in support for internationalism with age. And among party supporters, only among Conservatives and People’s Party supporters do we find a majority supporting isolationism.
This is a clear shift in the Canadian right-of-centre movement from a decade ago. They prefer that Canada stay out of global affairs and would prefer the federal government focus on issues at home. We will see this especially when they are asking about Canada supporting Ukraine against Russia.
But this explanation only gets us so far. Quebec is not the most isolationist province (that distinction goes to Alberta), but it is the most opposed to supporting Israel. Moreover, NDP and Green voters are also strongly internationalist, but they disagree with Canada supporting Israel.
Also, respondents who do think that Canada should play an active role in global affairs are more likely to back Canada’s support for Israel than not. Among these respondents, 46% said they agree with the federal government supporting Israel, while 33% said they do not agree.
So we know that some of the opposition to backing Israel stems from the belief that Canada should never support any country when it is attacked, but this is only a partial explanation of not backing Canada’s support for Israel against Hamas.
Canadians More Willing To Back Ukraine Over Russia
For more context though, we must consider what Canadians think about supporting Ukraine in their armed conflict against Russia. Support for helping Ukraine (51% total support) is far higher than it is for supporting Israel. As with the Israel question, support increases with age – although the increase is not monotonic. Moreover, support for Ukraine is lower in Quebec than the national average (although support is lower still in Alberta and the Prairies).
We also find further evidence of Canada’s right-of-centre parties becoming more isolationist with the Ukraine question. Only Conservative Party and People’s Party supporters disagree with supporting Ukraine against Russia. Supporters of all other parties show robust approval of support for Ukraine.
And while Canadians who favour internationalism are more likely to back Canada’s support for Israel. They are far more likely to agree with Canada’s backing of Ukraine. While 46% agree with supporting Israel, 71% say they agree with backing Ukraine, with 50% saying they strongly agree.
Internationalism Only Gets Us So Far In Explaining Why Israel Isn’t Backed
We’ve learned from our study that there are Canadians, most of whom back right-of-centre parties, who want nothing to do with Canada getting involved in problems abroad, be it Israel, Ukraine, or elsewhere.
Conversely, we also find that Canadians who do think we as a country should play an active role in global affairs are less willing to support Israel in its armed conflict against Hamas than seeing Canada support Ukraine against Russia. This is true for Canadians as a whole.
These results should alarm people. By way of reminder, Hamas is currently listed as a terrorist organization by the federal government.
However, increasing isolationism, especially from the right, can only get us so far in explaining why this is the case. It might be the case that Canadians do not want to get involved in this particular decades-long conflict that seemingly has no end in sight. It might be that Canadians think that Israel – with its significant military strength – is capable of defending itself perfectly fine without Canadian help.
However, we cannot deny that there are Canadians who look at the conflict between Israel and Hamas and have decided that in their struggle with a terrorist organization such as Hamas, Israel is in the wrong. We were very careful in how we phrased this question. We didn’t take a side in the phrasing of our question (regardless of our personal opinions). We also mentioned Hamas, not Palestine. And we find Canadians evenly split on this issue.
It may be that respondents are pronouncing their support for the Palestinean cause writ large or that they simply are unaware that Hamas has been deemed a terrorist organization. But we cannot rule out or deny that there is antisemitism at play in this question, where some respondents knowingly backed a terrorist organization against Israel. This might be an inconvenient truth for some to deal with for some, as this is a thumb in the eye of Canada being a tolerant and inclusive country. But we cannot deny that its presence is real, given the rise of antisemetic violence in the past couple of weeks.
